Canadian government urged to seek partnership with Japan
It’s time for Canada to turn its attention to Japan, say experts, after president-elect Donald Trump hammered the last nails into the Trans-Pacific Partnership’s coffin Monday.
Trump said in a video posted to YouTube he will immediately withdraw from the 12-country trade agreement when he takes office.
The deal, negotiated for seven years, included Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and other Asia-Pacific partners.
Without the Americans, the TPP would’ve looked markedly different, experts say, since many partners made big, specific concessions to gain access to the U.S. market.
Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, said Monday the deal would be “meaningless” without the States. And if any Canadian doubts remained about whether the TPP could move forward without the U.S., trade minister Chrystia Freeland did her best to quell them Tuesday.
“The TPP agreement is so structured that this agreement can only come into force if six of the countries covering 85 per cent of the GDP of the overall space ratify the agreement,” she explained.
“What that means in practice is the TPP agreement, as currently structured and finalized, can only go into force if it is ratified by the United States.”
That’s unlikely to happen during the lame duck period before Trump’s inauguration.
“For Canada, the real jewel in the TPP crown was having access to the Japanese market, and I think this needs to be part of the plan B given what’s happened,” said Stewart Beck, president and CEO of the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada.
A free trade deal with Japan would be good for resource industries including wood, seafood, canola and pork, Beck said. Canada could also look at New Zealand and Vietnam.
Conservative leader Rona Ambrose accused the Liberal government Tuesday of not having a “plan B,” saying, “they need to get their ducks in a row very quickly.”
Even as the government stays in a “wait-and-see” holding pattern on the TPP — it’s still consulting Canadians, Freeland said — Canada should work on bilateral relationships with TPP partners, said Meredith Lilly, a former senior adviser to prime minister Stephen Harper.
“I would say the most important of those would be Japan,” said Lilly, now an associate professor at Carleton University. “We have a bilateral deal that has been through a number of negotiation sessions already and it’s quite well-developed.”
Meanwhile, though the TPP was seen as a geopolitical counterweight to China’s huge economy, Canada recently committed to working toward a free trade agreement with the Chinese.
While Canada shouldn’t “jump into” a deal without studying its implications, Beck said “it is in our interest now to really proceed in a forward-moving direction with China.”
And as Canada jockeys for position, other multilateral agreements are in the mix, too: notably the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, including countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, plus Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, India and China.
Beck said it wouldn’t be simple for Canada to join negotiations, which started in 2012, but the agreement is something to keep an eye on.