PM’s priorities for the new year
Three makes a trend. Recent polls by Forum Research, Ipsos and Abacus Data point to a measurable slump in the Trudeau government’s public support as 2016 draws to a close. It’s not a five-alarm fire for the Liberals, by any means. Nor is it something they will feel inclined to ignore.
The question MPs, ministers and their aides will ask themselves this holiday will be, what to do? The toughest parts of their agenda — pipelines, reform to improve aboriginal living standards, limits to growth in health spending, to name three — cannot be talked away or avoided. Nor can the sweeping geopolitical change underway. For the foreseeable future, at least until U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s unpredictability morphs into a discernible pattern, the crossborder relationship will be an all-consuming focus of this PMO.
Nor can the Trudeau Liberals change the reality of politics in seat-rich Ontario, where the Kathleen Wynne Liberal government is testing new lows in public approval heading into a pre-election year. It is inevitable that Wynne’s egregious failures, especially on the energy file, will cling to the feds somewhat as the Ontario contest heats up. These two parties are close. They share ground teams. Trudeau can create distance by not being seen with Wynne. But that has its limits.
And there’s more trouble looming on the provincial front: B.C. Premier Christy Clark faces voters next spring. The one project that is pivotal to the federal government’s economic strategy — the twinning of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline — will be among the ballot questions. A loss by Clark to the provincial NDP, who staunchly oppose the pipeline, would immeasurably complicate Trudeau’s life.
None of this is to say, however, that he’s boxed in — or even that his protracted honeymoon is over. On the contrary, the PM has significant room to manoeuvre, if he’s willing to adjust to circumstance.
For months, Trudeau and Government House Leader Bardish Chagger have downplayed and minimized opposition and media criticism over Liberal “cash-foraccess” fundraisers. They sputter that Elections Canada’s rules have been adhered to. They ignore, with an insouciance that begins to look like mulishness, that flogging $1,500-per-person tickets to small private parties where the PM is present, violates his own explicit guidelines for “open and accountable” government.
Truth be told, fundraising has been a thorn in all political parties’ sides since the former Stephen Harper government did away with the per-vote subsidy put in place by Jean Chrétien, to obviate the need for corporate and union money. Over the Harper decade, Conservatives mastered the art of the small, individual donation, pried out of supporters’ wallets via mail-outs over such wedge issues as the long-gun registry.
This undoubtedly changed Conservative politics, and not in a good way, because it led the party to constantly stoke battles with its critics, rather than find common ground that might have broadened its appeal.
If the Liberals were to introduce a reversal in the New Year — say, a return of some degree of the per-vote subsidy, combined with a ban on ministerial appearances at fundraisers with ticket prices over $200 — they’d take heat from conservative partisans unhappy with this regression to a biggovernment model of political financing. But Conservative MPs, having bludgeoned Trudeau for months over this issue, would be hardpressed to credibly hammer him further for taking their advice.
Next, electoral reform. It wasn’t supposed to be a litmus test of Trudeau’s good faith, but that’s what it has become, under the stewardship of Democratic Reform Minister Maryam Monsef. The parliamentary committee charged with overseeing this file delivered a clear recommendation: Hold a referendum in which Canadians can choose between a proportional system and the status quo. The government should take that advice.
It cannot ram through a change to a ranked-ballot system, which the PM is known to favour, because that would appear too cravenly self-interested. It cannot, without causing a rift with its new centre-left cohort of former NDP supporters, simply ditch reform and stick with the status quo.
But it can hammer out a model for proportional representation — there are dozens around the world from which to choose — and let the people choose. Odds are, given rising uncertainty globally, Canadians will opt for the status quo anyhow, that being the devil we know.
Finally, the cabinet. The Huffington Post’s Althia Raj reported last week that a shuffle is in the works. If so, it would be high time.
Monsef is due for a move, clearly. Foreign Minister Stéphane Dion has presided over one little snafu after another. Some of the government’s strongest performers — Health Minister Jane Philpott, Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland, Public Security Minister Ralph Goodale — are entrenched on key files and not likely going anywhere. But others, such as Transport Minister Marc Garneau and Chief Government Whip Andrew Leslie, are underused.
The Trudeau Liberals prefer not to course-correct on the fly. Fair enough. But now, this is Christmas — ample time to rethink. If they’re wise, they will, before the dip becomes a slide.