L.A. Kings are demonstrating how quantity of shots doesn’t trump quality
The Los Angeles Kings are forcing hockey analytics to further evolve.
For years, many believed the statistic called Corsi, which calculates shot attempts for vs. shots attempts against in five-onfive play, was a better indicator of how a team was playing rather than just judging it on goals for and against.
There was some truth to it, but like with most theories, some people rely too heavily on it. Many of the astute believers of analytics realize Corsi isn’t as accurate as they originally believed and set out to track other factors which would paint a more accurate analytical analysis of the game.
This season in the National Hockey League, the Kings are showing how quantity doesn’t trump quality.
The 2012 and 2014 Stanley Cup champions lead the NHL in Corsi For percentage at 55.27 per cent. They’ve attempted 3,522 shot attempts through Monday’s game against the Edmonton Oilers and allowed just 2,850. The Kings take shots from everywhere, often low percentage shots, and hope to get the rebound or win battles in front of the net. Rarely do we see them complete multiple passes in the offensive zone, which usually lead to high-quality scoring chances.
In Monday’s 2-0 loss to the Oilers, the Kings had 71 shot attempts, 30 shots and only six high-quality scoring chances at even strength. The Oilers countered with 49 shot attempts, 25 shots, but they had 15 highquality chances.
When the Kings spent time in the offensive zone, often the puck was on the perimeter, and they would shoot from there. The Oilers defence defended the Kings’ strategy masterfully. They boxed out the forwards and didn’t allow the Kings any second opportunities. The Kings didn’t register a rebound attempt all game, according to NHL.com.
The closest interval of shots in one sequence was 15 seconds. It is very difficult to score from the outside in today’s NHL, and if a team can’t generate rebound attempts, they won’t score often. The Kings’ strategy of shoot from everywhere and crash the net isn’t working anymore. Teams have figured it out, and the Kings size isn’t the advantage it was from 2012-15.
They don’t have enough offensive depth or creativity. Their first-line centre, Anze Kopitar, skated with wingers Trevor Lewis and Dustin Brown. Lewis has 21 points and Brown has 32. That is not close to first-line quality.
The Kings need to alter their style. Teams need to try to make some offensive plays rather than fire a high number of low percentage shots and hope to score. Los Angeles has the fifth most shots on goal, but the Kings are 24th in five-on-five goals. Quantity over quality doesn’t work in today’s game, especially when you are unwilling to try to make plays.
TALBOT WORTHY OF BEING A VEZINA FINALIST
The Oilers’ Cam Talbot might be a Vezina Trophy finalist as the NHL’s top goalie this season, but the Columbus Blue Jackets’ Sergei Bobrovsky is the odds-on favourite to win it.
Prior to Tuesday night’s games, Bobrovsky leads the NHL in wins with 39, a 2.04 goals-against average and has a league-best .931 save percentage. Two weeks ago, the Minnesota Wild’s Devan Dubnyk was right with Bobrovsky, but in his last seven starts, he has a brutal .871 save percentage and has allowed 21 goals.
Talbot has started a leaguehigh 65 games and is second in wins with 37. His .922 save percentage is fifth-best in the league. He’s faced 260 more shots than Dubnyk, 292 more than Bobrovsky. I doubt Talbot wins the award, but he saved his way into the conversation of one of the three best goalies this season.
CFL WEEK SHOULD HELP LEAGUE ADD MORE FANS
CFL Week was a fantastic idea by the CFL. Bringing in the stars of the league and combining it with the draft combine was a great way to allow fans to interact with star players from every team.
Debuting it in the Canadian Football League hotbed of Regina was wise, I just hope the powers that be don’t ruin it by going to Toronto next season. It should go to Ottawa or Hamilton then the following year back out West in either Edmonton, Winnipeg or Calgary.
Build it up in the markets where the fans have been loyal. Reward your diehard supporters rather than beg people in Toronto to care about you. I hope they’ve learned from the Grey Cup failure.
It would also be nice if the general managers, owners and commissioner realized to grow the league and create more interest among CFL fans, the league should make their negotiations list public.
Fans would love seeing which players are on their favourite team’s list. If the CFL wants to gain traction they need to be a year-round league, not just from June to November.
DEDICATED HOCKEY VOLUNTEER RETIRES
Congratulations to longtime local statistician Steve Bluett on his retirement from hockey. Bluett has compiled stats for the Sherwood Park Crusaders, the Fort Saskatchewan Traders, the Saskatoon Blades, the Spruce Grove Saints and the Edmonton Oil Kings since 1983.
He tracked stats for more than 2,200 games. He was a volunteer for every game. He would drive to road games by himself to help give players and coaches more information. He is a great example of doing it for the love of the game.
Steve, you are an inspiration. All the best.