PAPER TIGER, OR TRUE CONTENDER?

Playoff run could determine fate of this experienced and improved Raptors roster

DeMar DeRozan was asked what his Toronto Raptors got out of their previous playoff experiences, on the eve of their fourth straight crack at it.

“Damn near everything.” He’s not far off.

There was the humiliating sweep at the hands of the Washington Wizards two years ago and the two seven-game series last year, each packed with highs and lows. There were times against Indiana and Miami when the Raptors looked about to succumb meekly, and times when they ran their opponents off the floor. Lessons were learned.

Then there was the Eastern Conference final against Cleveland, which was mostly a learning experience on how to get thumped gracefully.

Throughout it all, the Raptors answered many questions about themselves. Just when it appeared a team led by Kyle Lowry and DeRozan might not be good enough to produce in the post-season, when the pressure is higher and the opponents tougher, they finally won the first seven-game series in franchise history. Then they did it again.

This season brought even more answers. They started strong, staggered around like a drunk on a cruise ship in the middle of the season, then sobered up late, thanks in large part to the addition of defence-first types in Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. They even learned to win without Lowry, which was a feat for a team that often looked lost without him.

And yet, despite how much more is known about the Raptors today than at this point a year ago, their first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks comes down to the same old boring thing: will they hit their shots?

Or, as coach Dwane Casey put it: “At the end of the day, you gotta make buckets. It doesn’t matter who it is, I said it this year when we were second or whatever in the league, it’s a make-or-miss league.”

That this is something Casey says all the time — it’s basketball’s version of hockey’s “take away their time and space” — does not make it untrue. Last year, against a Pacers team that had Paul George and not a whole lot else, the Raptors missed at shocking levels.

Lowry and DeRozan each shot 32 per cent from the field — that’s with the benefit of rounding up — and Lowry hit just seven three- pointers over seven games. He hit 16 per cent of his three-point attempts, which is about the rate you’d expect if you pulled someone from the stands and asked them to hit the long ball. The whole team shot just 28 per cent from distance, and the strangest part was the Raptors had a lot of open looks.

Halfway through that series, after Indiana drilled Toronto to even it at 2-2, the Raptors were shooting 25 per cent on wide-open threes — those with a defender no closer than six feet away. That is how you struggle to beat an inferior team.

So, the Bucks. They have a fabulous player in Giannis Antetokounmpo, who leads them in everything, then a bunch of good-to-serviceable guys, which sounds a lot like last year’s Pacers.

It’s not entirely like 2016, though. Ibaka and Tucker haven’t just stiffened the Raptors’ defence, they’re also capable shooters who could be called upon if the Bucks load up on DeRozan and Lowry. Casey says there is no doubt DeRozan, having played a long stretch without Lowry, is better equipped to distribute the ball, which would be a change from the last playoffs, when he was determined to keep shooting even as the shots weren’t falling. He was proud of emptying the clip, as he said, although his sights were crooked.

But after all the playoff experience and all the changes — trades in which management gambled that this version of the Raptors could get back to the East final and have a fighting chance — as much as whatever happens now will greatly inform the future of the franchise — with Lowry and Ibaka both free agents this summer, and with president Masai Ujiri still having to decide whether he wants to lock himself into this roster for the long term — the Raptors have to play to their ability first.

They are 13-2 against the Bucks over the past four seasons and 3-1 this year, with the only loss coming when Lowry was hurt. Nothing in their recent history suggests Toronto will make this easy, but the opportunity is there. When Ujiri made those moves at the trade deadline, it gave the Raptors the most complete lineup they have ever had. It gave them a roster that should be able to at least slug it out with the reigning-champion Cavaliers, even if that matchup comes a round earlier than it did last year.

But, the Raptors still have to make more than they miss. Over to Casey again: “At the end of the day, when DeMar kicks it out to whoever is on the wing, they’ve got to make the shot.”

That, they do.