Kenney fails to boost PCs in poll

An improving provincial economy and a new Progressive Conservative leader have caused barely a tremor on the Alberta political scene so far, with a new poll showing the Wildrose continuing to hold the lead and the NDP remaining in third place.

A Mainstreet Research survey conducted for Postmedia shows the Wildrose under Brian Jean on top among leaning and decided voters, at 37 per cent.

The PCs, with former MP Jason Kenney at the helm since last month, are in second at 29 per cent, while Rachel Notley’s NDP trails both parties at 24 per cent.

The Liberals under David Swann and the Alberta Party led by Greg Clark each have the backing of five per cent of voters.

The numbers are almost identical to the previous Mainstreet political poll in February, though in that survey Wildrose was at 38 per cent, the Tories — then under interim leader Ric McIver — were steady at 29 per cent and the NDP stood at 23 per cent. The Liberal and Alberta Party numbers are unchanged in the new poll.

“What’s interesting to me is what’s not there,” said Mainstreet’s David Valentin in an interview this week.

“There is no bump for the Jason Kenney-led PCs.

“If anyone expected an immediate shakeup with the introduction of Jason Kenney to provincial politics, it doesn’t seem to have landed just yet.”

Kenney, a key cabinet minister in the former federal Conservative government, won the PC leadership in March on a platform of uniting the Tories with the Wildrose in a new party to take on the NDP government. The two parties have each named members to a discussion group around the idea, though the meetings are being kept under wraps.

Valentin noted that since Kenney won the leadership, he has kept a low profile, especially after wading into controversy around student-run gay-straight alliances in schools.

“What I think is interesting is he’s focused on something else entirely. He’s not focused on Alberta politics ... he’s focused on trying to make this merger happen and then winning a subsequent leadership race. Maybe he thinks that he doesn’t need to talk to Albertans at this moment, that he will have a chance to do so at a certain point when he is the leader of this combined conservative party.”

There is some good news potentially for both Kenney and Jean — who have each declared their intention to lead a new party — in the April poll. After he took the Tory crown in March, a Mainstreet poll on whom Albertans would prefer as leader of a hypothetical united conservative party had Jean at 26 per cent and Kenney at 17 per cent, with “someone else” the top choice at 28 per cent.

In the current poll, the gap has narrowed between the two party leaders with Kenney tied with “someone else” at 24 per cent and Jean moving to 29 per cent.

“Kenney’s up a bit,” said Valentin. “It’s not a lot, but he’s up.”

On a regional basis, the PCs remain the top choice in Calgary at 33 per cent, followed by the NDP at 27 per cent and Wildrose at 24 per cent. The NDP remain far ahead in their Edmonton stronghold with 46 per cent support, followed by Wildrose at 26 per cent and the PCs at 20 per cent.

The Wildrose continue to hold a commanding lead outside of the two main cities, coming in at 47 per cent compared to the PC’s 30 per cent and the New Democrats’ 16 per cent.

Since taking office in 2015, Notley’s government has faced a hard economic downturn caused by low oil prices, a situation its opponents say the NDP has made worse through its policies.

The province is predicting a return to economic growth this year, at a projected rate of 2.6 per cent and there have been some encouraging signs of late, including an estimated 20,000 new jobs created in March.

But Valentin said it’s no surprise the NDP is getting little bounce in the polls so far.

“It’s going to take time before Albertans really begin to register any sort of economic recovery. Statistics are great ... but what people are really looking for is: ‘Does my child have a job? Is my husband reemployed? Do I think I’m going to be in this career for the next few years?’”

Valentin notes there are events looming that could have a seismic effect on Alberta politics, including the British Columbia election results — which could decide the fate of a crucial pipeline project — and the outcome of conservative unity talks.

Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams said the poll numbers would likely be used by conservatives in favour of unifying as an argument that a new party would be a “sure thing.”

“Looking at the combined numbers between the two of them, that’s what the old PC (government) numbers used to look like in the days of the huge majority wins of days gone by,” she said, noting that it’s an open question whether all of the vote would move over to the new party.

The automated phone survey of 2,421 Albertans on their land lines and cellphones was conducted on April 11 and 12. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.99 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.