Notley chooses diplomacy over threats in softwood lumber tilt

I guess it can’t hurt.

The Alberta government has hired Gary Doer to defend Alberta’s softwood lumber industry in Washington, D.C.

Doer was Canada’s ambassador to the United States from 2009 to 2016, so he knows his way around American politics. He was Manitoba premier from 1999 to 2009, so he knows his way around Canadian politics.

Not only that, he was an NDP premier who was appointed ambassador by a Conservative prime minister. He would seem to have all bases covered.

But can he play hardball for Alberta’s softwood? I mean we’re talking about yet another dispute over Canadian exports of lumber to the U.S.

Or should I say we’re talking about the same dispute over Canadian exports of lumber to the U.S. that has been on-again-off-again since 1982.

This is the fifth incarnation of the American complaint that we unfairly subsidize our softwood lumber industry because most of the trees we harvest are on Crown land, not private land as in the U.S. The previous four disputes were all resolved in Canada’s favour.

That gives Canadian politicians optimism that we will prevail once again — but it’s not much comfort to the Canadian softwood lumber industry that was hit by stiff tariffs two weeks ago.

To put this in context, Canada sells about $6 billion worth of softwood lumber to the U.S. each year. Alberta alone sells about $300 million to the U.S. We have about 20,000 people working directly in the softwood industry.

There’s a lot at stake. That’s why Premier Rachel Notley hired Doer, even though Alberta already has a full-time agent in Washington, D.C.

“He is great at building and developing relationships, but most importantly, he’s the former Canadian ambassador to the U.S.,” Alberta Economic Development Minister Deron Bilous said earlier this week. “He knows this file, and he has contacts that we will absolutely leverage.”

Bilous says Doer will be a two-way conduit, advocating for Alberta’s softwood industry, while also reporting back to the Alberta government on what’s going on in Washington.

Alberta’s government has deliberately taken a more diplomatic tack than British Columbia Liberal Leader Christy Clark who, in the midst of the provincial election, threatened to levy a retaliatory tax on shipments of American thermal coal through B.C. ports.

We’ve already seen a glimpse of Doer’s more diplomatic strategy when he spoke to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce last November.

He told the audience Canada must speak “loud and proud” about the benefits of free trade to both countries.

“Canada is the largest customer of goods and services coming from the United States of any country in the world, and we buy more goods and services from the United States than the whole European Union,” said Doer. “We’ve got to say that over and over and over again.”

Of course, he was talking about the North American Free Trade Agreement. Softwood lumber is not part of NAFTA. That’s why we keep having to renegotiate softwood over and over.

But you’d imagine Doer’s pitch on softwood will be similar to his pitch on NAFTA.

But even if Doer can’t make one whit of difference, his appointment serves a useful purpose for Notley.

In politics, it’s important to be seen sending in the cavalry even if the guy on the horse is not so much Sir Lancelot as Don Quixote.

That’s not to say Doer is unqualified. He is shrewd, experienced, personable and has that most vital attribute for any Canadian official in Washington: a healthy sense of humour.

At a premiers’ conference in 2002, for example, when he was going head-to-head with Alberta’s then-premier Ralph Klein over how to respond to man-made climate change, Doer helped defuse the tension by joking he wanted Manitoba to keep raising cattle, not camels.

Doer’s hiring will cost Alberta $10,000 a month. That’s not an exorbitant amount considering what’s at stake and he might yet prove to be a knight in shining armour. But considering the vexatious nature of the lumber fight, he’s more likely to end up a quixotic figure tilting at American softwood windmills.