Conservatives plotting Plan B amid worries vote on merger will fall short
With a little more than two weeks until the unite-the-right vote, here’s the question that’s keeping officials of the Wildrose and Progressive Conservatives awake at night.
What happens if a clear majority of the two parties vote for a merger July 22, but the deal still fails because it gets less than the 75 per cent approval needed from Wildrose members?
That would be a nightmare scenario for officials who are desperate to get a merger approved and who are just as desperate to avoid a civil war between the two conservative parties should the merger fail.
That’s why they’re trying to find a Plan B.
We got a glimpse of their thinking Tuesday in Rocky Mountain House when about 150 people turned up for a 90-minute meeting organized by PC Leader Jason Kenney at the gymnasium of the Rocky Christian School.
These are people so fed up with the NDP government that they’d rather spend an hour and a half inside a school gymnasium listening to politicians than outside enjoying a glorious summer evening.
Actually, they went into overtime, spending more than two hours listening to Kenney and local Wildrose MLA Jason Nixon discuss unification.
The vast majority of the questions weren’t about policy or whether a merger is a good idea — the members of the audience just wanted to know the easiest way to cast a ballot and, if they belong to both parties, whether they can vote twice (they can).
One of the oddities in the upcoming vote is that the PC rules require only that a simple majority of its members vote in favour while the grassroots-driven Wildrose requires 75 per cent of its members to approve.
Officials in both parties are afraid there might be enough contrarian-minded Wildrosers to torpedo the deal.
So, they’re mulling over a plan to salvage some sort of unification agreement if the merger stumbles.
They’re looking specifically at what happens if the Wildrose vote falls just short of the 75 per cent threshold for approval.
Kenney raised the possibility of a Plan B when he suggested a “no” vote might not actually mean “no.” It all depends how close to “yes” it gets.
“If we have a no vote, we’re going to have to assess the circumstances,” said Kenney. “Imagine that both parties have a big no vote, then that would be totally different than one of the parties having a tiny no vote. I mean, if Wildrose members vote 74.5 per cent yes and the PCs vote 90 per cent yes, that’s a lot different than them voting 90 per cent no. So, we’re going to have to wait and see where the members are if there is a no vote on one side and then figure out how we go forward.”
Kenney said he would “remain open to other forms of co-operation,” such as non-competition agreements in some ridings. At the end of the day, it’s all about defeating the NDP in the next election for the Wildrose and PCs.
Nixon agreed, saying an almost-yes vote by Wildrose members “would be a time for both parties to have a serious talk.”
Nixon, though, is confident more than 75 per cent of Wildrosers will vote yes.
Others at the Tuesday’s meeting weren’t so sure.
Sheila Mizera is a Wildrose member and town councillor in Rocky Mountain House.
When asked if she thinks at least 75 per cent of Wildrosers will support unification with the PCs, she was blunt: “No, I don’t think they will.”
Mizera said the same rightwing Wildrose members who caused so much trouble for then-leader Danielle Smith in 2014 when she tried to moderate the party are still active — and they don’t want to merge with the PCs.
They’re so “far, far, far right,” said Mizera, that they view the unification deal as something of a left-wing plot to dilute the Wildrose movement.
Mizera desperately wants unification to go through and suggests, if enough Wildrosers vote yes, the deal will be pushed through even if it falls short of 75 per cent.
“You can’t put this much time and effort and energy into making this shift in Alberta politics and for .5 per cent, or even one per cent or two per cent, throw it down the drain,” she said. “Push the merger through.”
That is highly unlikely to happen because it would violate the Wildrose constitution. But Mizera is not alone in her pessimism about Plan A stumbling at the July 22 vote. That’s why officials in both parties are trying to find a Plan B.
We’re going to have to wait and see where the members are if there is a no vote on one side and then figure out how we go forward.