WHAT’S THE BLUE JAYS’ DEAL?
Despite Toronto’s disappointing season, a full teardown isn’t likely at trade deadline
The plan wasn’t to be this far out of a playoff spot at major league baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline.
Of course, they didn’t plan to be among the league leaders in impactful injuries and underachieving stars, either, which led to this place.
But one part of the plan for Toronto Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins has stayed the same. They never figured to be a top-end seller on July 31 and, with that deadline now just days away, we shouldn’t expect that mindset to change significantly.
Quite simply, the Jays’ big assets are too valuable and the risk of alienating a burgeoning fan base too dear.
While there was a tendency to laugh off Atkins’ assertions this week that the team aims to contend in 2018, we’re not sure where the joke is.
Yes, the team has struggled and has spent every day of the season with at least a share of the AL East basement. And yes, high-end prospects such as Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are still at least a couple of years away from the majors. But recognizing the assets already in hand and the financial hazards of a couple years of tanking, the Jays brass appears to favour bridgebuilding rather than demolition.
In public, at least, Atkins seems to have a clear understanding of the Toronto/Canadian market and what is at play.
“A month ago, we were talking about the need for our team to play well and get hot,” Atkins said this week. “We didn’t have to absolutely catch fire, but we haven’t done that and now we’re in a position where ... the scale of deciding whether we add or subtract has definitely changed.”
That’s a mouthful, but essentially Atkins is suggesting there won’t be a full sell-off, particularly of stars such as Marcus Stroman, Roberto Osuna and Josh Donaldson. The team is committed to being competitive.
Saying it and doing it, of course, are two different things. And the non-waiver deadline, along with off-season free agency, offers one of the better opportunities to acquire assets.
Although a teardown has its merits, the Toronto market may not be ready to accept it as willingly as it did with the recent overhaul of the NHL’s Maple Leafs. With Rogers owning the team, the radio and TV networks that carries all of its games, plus the Rogers Centre where they play, there is no such luxury. The lucrative fan base built over the past two years has been a massive corporate success story. And the fact the Jays are indisputedly Canada’s team has to factor into that business model.
“We still feel like we will have a great team in 2018, (one) that we’ll need to add to,” Atkins said. “We would hope and like for this team to remain relevant (for the rest of the 2017) and a contending team, potentially.”
Atkins acknowledged there are long odds of the latter happening, but firmly established next season as a target. With that in mind, we look at some of the key factors in play as time ticks down to Monday’s deadline.
NO JOSHIN’ AROUND
Anything can happen, but moving third baseman Donaldson is far-fetched for several reasons.
First, the Jays would lose an MVP, still in his prime, with the power to electrify the fan base. As for value, because of his muted production during this injury-plagued season, the Bringer of Rain would probably bring less in return than at any other point in his three-year tenure in Toronto. Getting rid of Donaldson — unless the incoming assets are unfathomably fantastic — would send a rather loud message to both the team and its followers that a sell-off is in effect.
As forgettable as his 2017 has been, Donaldson remains an elite player and, at 31, he should have enough good years left to bridge the current group and whatever the new wave may bring. Joe Smith. All three have expiring contracts and, to varying degrees, value to offer a contender.
Liriano seems to be garnering the most attention, the belief being he can offer long relief help and insurance to a starting rotation. The Jays acquired him with just that in mind last season.
Smith has some bullpen appeal, as well, and that seems to be the most in-demand commodity. The veteran, recently returned from the DL, has been one of manager John Gibbons’ most reliable relievers.
Estrada is a different story. With an ERA in the shadow of 10 in July and no wins in his past 10 starts, he has struggled to find the form that made him one of the stalwarts of the rotation.
The returning assets likely would be marginal for either starter and what’s left of the rotation would be in disarray. However, neither Liriano nor Estrada have been reliable for several weeks, so moving either or both wouldn’t necessarily signal the team giving up this season.
WHAT ABOUT SMOAK?
As disciples of the sell- high movement, any general manager would recognize the value of first baseman Justin Smoak in his breakthrough season.
But if Atkins and Shapiro believe that at age 30 Smoak has finally realized his potential, they won’t move him. Smoak’s production has easily replaced that of Edwin Encarnacion and his defensive prowess at first is vastly underrated.
If, however, management believes regression is probable and they are met with an offer too good to resist, the time might be right.
Smoak, left-handed starter J.A. Happ and utility fielder Steve Pearce are all in the same situation in that they are under contract through 2018. But lefties are hard to come by and Pearce is heating up at the plate so moving any of the three would seem unlikely.
WHAT TO WATCH?
“Maybe we’ll surprise the world.” Gibbons doesn’t really believe it, but when he said as much earlier this week it provided cause to look at the wild-card standings and once again dream of that 11-game win streak that thrust them into contention two summers ago.
Of course, the team and the manager have been wishing for such a run since May. Given the inconsistency of the starting rotation — and only intermittent power surges at the plate — it seems wishful thinking.
Hitting, however, can be contagious, especially with this team. And the walk-off homers in two wins over Oakland are certainly encouraging.
Dedicated optimists will point to 31 remaining games against AL East opponents as a positive. We’ll see about that.
If the Jays fall farther out of contention, it opens the possibility of getting big-league playing time and at-bats for young prospects such as Anthony Alford and Dwight Smith Jr.
WHAT ABOUT THIS WEEK?
The four-game sweep of the Athletics demonstrated a few things, even though the A’s are one of the American League’s truly awful teams.
As bloated as the odds to make the playoffs may be, there’s still a chance the Jays will play some meaningful baseball in September — and that would help keep ratings afloat and possibly encourage some off-season ticket sales for 2018.
After that disastrous 3-7 road trip through Detroit, Boston and Cleveland, however, management’s tone changed notably.
A month ago, Atkins said the team would be a buyer at the deadline.
A few days ago, it was acknowledged that such shopping will not involve dipping into the rental market. A sweep over the A’s won’t divert that strategy.