Notley says economy rebounding
Corporate spending at Stampede a sign that Calgary’s fortunes turning: premier
Premier Rachel Notley says Calgary can celebrate a rebounding economy as the city heads into its annual Stampede party.
But Notley’s NDP government may have less reason to whoop it up, as the party faces major political challenges in Calgary with a provincial election looming next spring. Notley will be a ubiquitous presence in Calgary over the next week, including a major infrastructure announcement with Mayor Naheed Nenshi on Thursday.
At an event overlooking the Stampede grounds Wednesday, Notley touted an improving economy evidenced by corporate spending at the Stampede, such as the chuckwagon canvas auction that raised almost $1 million more than last year.
“Stampede is also a very big barometer for our economy. This year, the Stampede barometer says our economic storms are starting to pass. Things are starting to look up,” she said.
Yet, while Notley touted the beginning of construction work on the Trans Mountain pipeline and 90,000 new jobs created over the past year, other numbers show the NDP is still struggling with the legacy of two years of recession in 2015 and 2016 caused by low oil prices.
A recently released Leger poll showed the United Conservative Party with 47 per cent of support among decided and leaning voters in Alberta, compared to the NDP’s 33 per cent.
In Calgary, the figures show the UCP at 49 per cent and the NDP at 34 per cent.
The economy was viewed as the most important issue in every region but had the highest response in Calgary, at 18 per cent. Another 11 per cent of Calgary respondents had cost of living as the top issue, and 11 per cent said unemployment.
Ian Large, Leger’s vice-president for Alberta, said the NDP has time to put a dent in the numbers before the next vote.
But he believes real progress on the Trans Mountain pipeline has to be seen by Alberta voters. The project, which is being taken over by the federal government, released a construction schedule this week that will see work begin on the Edmonton to Jasper portion in late July.
Large said there are positive developments economically in Calgary, but how it translates politically is a different question.
“It’s not booming down there but it’s certainly moving in the right direction. Then the question is, who gets credit for that?”
The poll of 999 Albertans was conducted between June 8 and 12, using Leger’s online panel.
As a non-random internet survey, a margin of error is not reported.
Had the data been collected using a probability sample, the margin of error would be 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Notley, whose party pulled off a stunning upset of the four-decadeold Progressive Conservative dynasty in 2015, said she’s not worried about the lack of a political bump so far from an improving economy.
“When we get closer to a campaign I’ll get a little bit more concerned about polls,” she told reporters.
“Now’s not the time. The time now is to do the job I’ve been elected to do, and I am pleased we are starting to see progress on the objectives that we said would be the focus for Albertans … We’re not here to say we’re there yet but we are here to say that things are looking up.”
But UCP MLA Ric McIver said Notley seemed to be taking another “victory lap.”
“I would agree with the premier that things are improving but the problem is she may want to be a little careful about the credit she’s taking for that,” he said.
“Because things are improving because the price of oil went up.
“She didn’t want blame when the price of oil went down … but the extension of that is she doesn’t get credit when the price of oil goes up, either.”
Notley said the government had bolstered the economy during the downturn by focusing on diversification and creating jobs through stimulus spending. But McIver said NDP policies such as increased corporate tax rates and introduction of a broad-based carbon levy have hampered the city’s economic comeback.
At the premier’s event, Calgary Chamber of Commerce president Sandip Lalli said there is increased optimism in the city, with 56 per cent of local businesses planning to hire new staff this year, but issues such as lack of investment still loom large.
Calgary Economic Development president Mary Moran noted that unemployment in Calgary was down to 7.7 per cent from a high of 10.2 per cent.
“It’s encouraging but certainly we have a way to go,” she said.
“Until we have more investment coming in to our community — which hopefully we will get with a pipeline — and we see the office towers behind us more full than they are today, we have a lot of work to do.”