Trans Mountain ruling puts premier ‘in a lot of trouble’
The political repercussions of the Federal Court of Appeal decision quashing approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion hit home almost immediately Thursday as Premier Rachel Notley issued a stark challenge to the federal government.
But analysts say the effect of the court ruling — which found the federal government had not adequately met its duty to consult First Nations and that the National Energy Board had not properly considered tanker traffic — will ripple through the Alberta political scene through to the next provincial election, less than a year away.
In a Thursday evening televised announcement, Notley said she had spoken to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and called on him to immediately appeal the federal court decision to the Supreme Court of Canada and reconvene Parliament in an emergency session to fix the NEB process.
The premier also announced that Alberta would pull out of the federal climate plan while the pipeline was stalled, though she acknowledged at the moment that only meant Alberta would not raise its current $30-per-tonne to $40 as planned in 2021 and $50 in 2022.
Notley’s NDP government has been closely allied with Trudeau but she included the Liberal government in her list of those responsible — along with the former Conservative government, the federal court and the NEB — that “the current state of affairs in Canada is such that building a pipeline to tidewater is practically impossible.”
“Let’s not kid ourselves. This is a threat to Canadian sovereignty and Canadian economic security,” she said.
“It is a crisis. Today, Alberta needs action.”
Notley said that with all the steps taken, it was possible that nowhalted work on the pipeline could begin again early next year.
She said Trudeau had assured her that his government, which bought the pipeline for $4.5 billion to ensure the expansion would take place, was committed to the project.
However, he did not commit to the actions she outlined.
Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt said Notley ’s tougher tone showed she was taking the “standing up to Ottawa approach” like former premier Peter Lougheed.
But he questioned whether that will work given that Notley ’s closeness to Trudeau and her reliance on Ottawa to take action.
It’s a tough situation for Notley, who has staked the fortunes of her government on showing real progress on construction of the pipeline to the British Columbia coast by the time of the 2019 provincial election next spring. That time frame is now out the window.
“Notley ’s in a lot of trouble,” said Bratt. “Simply put, she’s in a lot of trouble. It’s not her fault but it doesn’t matter.”
Bratt noted neither of the issues raised by the court have anything to do with the Alberta government.
But Notley will take heat because she has linked the broadbased carbon levy brought in by her government to gaining social licence for the pipeline to go ahead, he said.
At a Calgary news conference earlier in the day, United Conservative Party Leader Jason Kenney called for Notley to immediately scrap the carbon tax.
“Alberta’s NDP has been wrong from Day 1 in promising pipeline construction as a result of punishing Albertans with a carbon tax,” he said.
Following her speech, Kenney scoffed on Twitter that Notley’s idea of “hardball” was keeping the existing tax.
The UCP leader dismissed the idea the pipeline setback would clinch the next election for his party, though a former aide to Kenney, Blaise Boehmer, tweeted that the “NDP are now officially toast in 2019.”
Instead, Kenney accused Notley of indulging in triumphalism after earlier court victories, a theme echoed by the Alberta Party.
“Rachel Notley stood in front of the legislature, with her staff lined up behind her clapping, and announced that buying the pipeline was the solution to all our problems,” said Alberta Party MLA Rick Fraser in a news release.
“Today, we saw how hollow all of that celebrating is.”
The Trudeau government purchased the Trans Mountain line from Kinder Morgan Canada for $4.5 billion to overcome political uncertainty facing the project.
Under the agreement, the Alberta government will put $2 billion to help cover cost overruns — which are now much more likely — and receive an ownership stake in return.
Kinder Morgan shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale to the federal government at a meeting Thursday in Calgary.
The pipeline expansion is seen as critical as Alberta tries to open new markets and get a better price for its oilsands crude.
Bratt said the court decision is not as damaging to the pipeline itself as it first appeared, with the court saying the federal government and the NEB can redo the faulty parts of the process in relatively quick order.
But time is not a luxury the premier has, he said, given that the next provincial election is scheduled by law to take place between March 1 and May 31, 2019.