CLOCK TICKING ON NAFTA DEAL
U.S. signals ‘frustration’ with Canada
Ever since the U.S. struck a surprise, wide-ranging trade deal solely with Mexico last month, defenders of Canadian negotiating tactics have argued there was little to worry about.
After all, they reasoned, Congress would never approve a bilateral NAFTA update that left out its northern neighbour.
But that security blanket seemed rather more threadbare Tuesday after a leading House Republican warned there was “growing frustration” in Congress over Canada’s stubbornness, and urged it to make the concessions needed for a “fair” agreement.
The sharply worded statement from Rep. Steve Scalise, the GOP House whip, echoed comments the White House has been making for weeks, as it pressured Canada to join the accord reached with Mexico.
But coming from Congress — albeit a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump — it marked a significant heating up of talks to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement.
“There is a growing frustration with many in Congress regarding Canada’s negotiating tactics,” Scalise wrote. “Members are concerned that Canada does not seem to be ready or willing to make the concessions that are necessary for a fair and high-standard agreement.”
Lawmakers would all like to have Canada as part of the accord, but there is not an “unlimited amount of time” for that to happen, warned the Louisiana representative.
He cited the U.S. law around approval of trade agreements and its requirement that a full text of a new NAFTA be released by Oct. 1. That would enable it to be signed by Mexico’s outgoing president, Enrique Peña Nieto, before he leaves office at the end of November, considered important to ensuring its ratification there.
Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland was scheduled to resume talks with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Washington on Wednesday. In response to Scalise’s warnings, her spokesman, Adam Austen, said Canada has been active in an “intensive phase of negotiations” for four weeks.
“We are confident that creative compromises can be found that will enable us to reach a deal,” he said. “That being said, our government is committed to getting a good deal for Canada, not just any deal.”
Some analysts said Tuesday the Canadians should take the new warnings to heart.
Scalise’s statement reinforces the view both in the White House and on Capitol Hill that releasing a text by Oct. 1 is a real deadline — and there is no guarantee Congress would block a Mexico-only accord, said Dan Ujczo, a U.S. trade lawyer following the talks closely.
As the trade war with China heats up, “members of Congress want trade certainty in the North American backyard, especially in the lead-up to the midterm elections,” he said.
Eric Miller, a Washington-based consultant and veteran of several trade negotiations, said the statement should not be ignored by Canada, but also ought to be taken with a grain of salt.
“A friend of President Trump criticizes Canada for not giving him what he wants,” the head of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group said about the statement. “At this point, the president is being eminently logical in trying to get his allies in Congress to turn up the heat.”
Scalise should be heeded, since, as whip, he has a handle on where Republicans lean on the issue, and could succeed Paul Ryan as GOP House leader, said Chris Sands, head of the Center for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
“I see it as a reflection mainly of the Trump administration’s desire to get a deal,” said Sands. “He’s putting out a marker here, sending a shot across the bow.”