NOTLEY COULD TACKLE PUMP PRICES, SINCE AFFORDABILITY IS KEY TO HER PITCH

On Monday, Calgary gasoline cost 37.2 cents per litre more than last year’s average price.

In Edmonton, the parallel price jump was 41 cents per litre.

This will be a hot political issue, with a provincial election coming next spring and the NDP open to attack over carbon tax at the pumps.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford ditched that province’s cap-andtrade scheme. In a few days, the average gasoline price dropped five cents per litre.

If an Ontario conservative cuts prices, what are the chances an Alberta New Democrat won’t? Close to zero, I would say. Lower than zero, though, are the odds that Premier Rachel Notley will do it by killing the carbon tax.

The NDP would do it through other means — by pressing refineries to lower prices, maybe subsidizing them, perhaps enacting some kind of cap legislation.

They’ve already used dramatic tactics to foster economic goals, from applying pressure on electric utilities to legalizing cuts in petroleum exports to B.C.

If gasoline prices climb, the question isn’t whether the NDP will act, but how.

The options being considered aren’t clear at this point — or not public, anyway. But officials confirm that something is in the wind.

Because for the NDP, these prices are dangerous.

They represent a significant hit on people’s incomes, even for the 60 per cent of Albertans who receive carbon tax rebates.

And the NDP’s whole political pitch — their ticket to re-election, they believe — revolves around one word: “affordability.”

Premier Notley’s government has capped electricity prices and post-secondary tuition fees.

She lowered elementary and secondary school fees. The province is slowly rolling out $25-a-day child care. Carbon tax rebates are constantly pitched as an affordability boost.

My favourite initiative comes with the headline: “Making hunting more affordable for seniors.”

Great idea, if seniors can afford to drive where they might find a deer or a duck.

The carbon tax wasn’t such a big irritant when it was introduced, because gas prices were generally under $1 per litre.

But now, these massive hikes are bumping up the provincial inflation rate.

The carbon tax isn’t a major part of the price. It’s now 7.1 cents per litre, including GST.

More damaging elements are the 10-cent-per-litre increase in the take for refiners, and the general price pressure from the low dollar.

Dan McTeague, gas price expert from Gasbuddy.com, also says retailers are no longer suppressing their margins, after a year of taking little profit “and trying to make it up selling beef jerky.”

The carbon tax may not be the main problem, but with prices now so high, Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Party will call relentlessly for its sudden death.

Ontario’s Ford won his election partly on promises to cut prices by 10 cents per litre.

The Monday price in that province, 122.3 cents per litre, was the second lowest nationally. Manitoba was a few pennies cheaper. (All these prices are from Gasbuddy.com, the useful site that has millions of users uploading gas station prices in real time. Prices change constantly, but the trends are clear.)

Alberta? We’re the fourth most expensive in Canada, after B.C. (highest), Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador.

It’s pretty rich (or poor) that Edmonton has a 41 cent jump in prices when refineries that supply much of western Canada’s gasoline are right next door.

ELECTION IN SEVEN MONTHS

Saskatchewan prices are about five cents per litre lower than Alberta’s. The difference is pretty close to Alberta’s carbon tax.

The national average, by the way, is $1.28 per litre, up 18 cents from last year.

This isn’t just an Alberta issue. But it’s Notley who faces an election within seven months.

I’m reminded of what PC premier Peter Lougheed did just before the 1982 election, when interest rates were 18 per cent.

He went on TV and announced “mortgage interest rebates.”

The government sent cheques that capped interest at 12.5 per cent on new or existing mortgages up to $60,000.

His party won 75 of 79 seats. That was a genuine crisis, of course.

So far, people aren’t losing their homes over gasoline prices.

But if these gasoline hikes get worse, you can expect action from Notley. She may already be rooting around the premier’s office for that Lougheed video.