Brexit a severe blow, but Canada can still find opportunities, says Campbell
The changes sweeping Europe post-Brexit are “seismic,” a panel of diplomats told a business crowd in Banff Friday, but Canada can still find opportunities if it reaches out to its friends and stands up for its values.
Neither former German ambassador to the U.K. Peter Ammon, Netherlands Ambassador to Canada Henk van der Zwan, nor former Canadian high commissioner to the U.K. Gordon Campbell underestimated the effect of the uncertainty in which Europe is currently mired.
With just six months to go until the U.K. is scheduled to leave the EU, it remains unclear what form a negotiated exit will take or if an agreement can be reached in time.
There is even talk a second Brexit referendum could be on the table.
Campbell — a former B.C. premier whose time as high commissioner coincided with the lead-up to the Brexit vote — told the crowd at the 2018 Global Business Forum in Banff that whatever happens, the U.K. is going to face negative economic and social consequences. He said these consequences could have been avoided if the “stay” side had run a better campaign and clearly communicated the downsides of leaving, including the hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk.
There are opportunities for Canadian businesses in the wake of Brexit, Campbell said, since Canada has a long-standing reputation of being a friend of both the U.K. and Europe. He said Canada can emphasize its status as a trusted trading partner in the midst of uncertainty. But Canada also needs to take the lessons of Brexit to heart, he said, by standing up for free trade.
“We can’t take the benefits we have for granted. We have to constantly reinforce those in the public’s mind,” he said.
Beyond Brexit, Ammon laid out a number of other risks Europe is currently facing, including loss of public trust in government and institutions, a breakdown of the traditional party system, internal challenges to EU policies, and the changing role of the United States on the world stage.
The German diplomat said he believes the world is headed toward a time similar to the pre-First World War years when countries were part of fractured alliances driven in part by fear.
Van der Zwan, the Dutch diplomat, said the EU may have to make changes and compromises in light of Brexit and the other forces buffeting Europe right now.
But he said the union as a whole has contributed to the tiny Netherlands — which is the size of New Brunswick and has a population of 17 million — becoming the 18thlargest economy in the world.
He said the EU will survive because the alternative is too frightening to consider.
“The EU will not fail, because it can’t,” he said.
We can’t take the benefits we have for granted. We have to constantly reinforce those in the public’s mind.