The no-deal scenarios,
As Prime Minister Theresa May tries to force through her Brexit deal, a spectre looming in the background is growing ever larger — what if there is no deal? Life after March 29, 2019, would suddenly become a lot more complicated in Britain with everything from flying to food becoming affected. In anticipation of this “unlikely scenario” the British government has issued 105 “guidance” papers covering such categories as travel, farming and fishing, money and tax, data protection, regulating medicines, satellites and space, studying in the U.K. and EU, and others. Analysts, politicians, businesses, even the army, have also weighed in about anticipated outcomes. The Post’s Michael Higgins looks at some of the possible consequences of a no-deal Brexit
FOOD: SHORTAGES
The cost of food will skyrocket, shortages will be common and an immediate consequence is likely to be fresh fruit and vegetables destined for Britain rotting at EU borders as importexport controls are thrown into confusion. “The biggest single challenge will be in a no-deal scenario and what happens with fresh food,” food giant Tesco chief executive Dave Lewis told Britain’s Independent newspaper last month. Dominic Raab, Brexit Secretary until quitting Thursday, has already suggested grocers should start stockpiling goods. Roger Burnley, chief executive of the Asda supermarket chain, said food would be left rotting at borders. “What would be scary is the prospect of any holdup at the border,” he told the Independent.
FOOD: TARIFFS
In 2017, the U.K. imported £48 billion worth of food and drink, or approximately 40 per cent of the total British market, reports Reuters. But 71 per cent of those imports were from the EU and so were not subject to tariffs. A study commissioned by Barclays bank said food and drink entering the U.K. from the EU would be subject to a new average tariff of 27 per cent. Reuters reported that among the highest levies would be frozen beef (300 per cent tariff) and orange juice (180 per cent tariff ).
FOOD: DEATHS
Increased food costs along with shortage of fresh food could lead to deaths, according to researchers from the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, University of Oxford. Senior researcher Marco Springmann and his colleague, Florian Freund, carried out a study that looked at the consequences of a “soft” Brexit — Britain still closely aligned with EU — and a “hard” Brexit — Britain rejects EU rules and goes it alone. “According to our estimates, the Brexit-related changes in food consumption could lead to 5,600 additional deaths per year under a hard Brexit, and to 2,700 additional deaths under a soft Brexit,” wrote Springmann. “Whatever form Brexit might take, our analysis suggests that it will significantly impact the British food system and negatively affect the health and welfare of British citizens.”
RIOTS
On Thursday, police said they feared a no-deal Brexit would lead to violence, widespread disruption, panic-buying because of rationing, and other dangers for which they were not prepared. In an interview with Sky News, Simon Kempton, the operational policing lead for the Police Federation of England and Wales, said no deal was “the worst case scenario.” Delays at border crossings could disrupt the flow of food, medicines and essential supplies, which could lead to disorder, he said. “We live in a liberal democracy. Protest is good, protest is part of being a democracy,” he told Sky News. “Where that moves into disorder, though, to violence — that’s the concern. And where people can’t feed themselves, potentially, where people can’t get their insulin, potentially, it’s a real concern that those protests might escalate into disorder.” He added, “This is 2018, it’s the year people dialed (emergency services) because KFC ran out of chicken. If that can happen, imagine what will happen if we start to see food or medical supply shortages.”
THE ARMY
Chief o f the Defence Staff Gen. Sir Nick Carter said the military was “thinking hard” about what a no-deal scenario would entail, especially if ports and roads were blocked. The military makes “sensible contingency plans for all sorts of eventualities” he told the BBC, adding, “we stand ready to help in any way we can.”
STOCKPILING/ RECESSION
Drug companies have been advised to start stockpiling supplies, but other businesses are also believed to be making sure they have a large inventory of raw materials — such as chemicals, semi-manufactured goods and manufactured goods. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a think-tank, said U.K. companies will stockpile about £40 billion of imports to cope with the impact of a no-deal Brexit. Later, as inventories were run down, production would not meet demand. “This makes a postBrexit mini-recession almost inevitable,” said Douglas McWilliams, CEBR founder.
FLIGHTS
If there is no deal, airlines wishing to operate flights between the U.K. and the EU would have to seek individual permissions to operate from the respective states (either
the U.K. or an EU country). “In this scenario the U.K. would envisage granting permission to EU airlines to continue to operate. We would expect EU countries to reciprocate in turn,” reads a government advice paper. But it adds, “It would not be in the interest of any EU country or the U.K. to restrict the choice of destinations that could be served, though, if such permissions are not granted, there could be disruption to some flights.”
DRIVING
A U.K. licence allows motorists to drive anywhere in the EU. That’s likely to change. The EU might require U.K. residents to pay for an international licence. U.K. residents moving permanently to an EU country might also find they need to take a driving test in their new country.
PASSPORTS
Under the Schengen Agreement, EU residents can travel passport-free around Europe. But under a no-deal scenario, British passport holders will be considered ‘third country’ nationals. They will need a valid passport, issued in the last 10 years and with at least three months validity on it — otherwise they could be banned from entry into another EU country.
ROAMING CHARGES
Britons can say “hello” again to big mobile bills if they use phones in the EU. Last year, the EU said no roaming charges should apply to residents of the EU who use their phones anywhere in the EU. “Mobile networks were forced to treat use in other EU countries the same as if the customer was at home,” reported the BBC. Unless a deal is made, Britons can expect to be hit with roaming charges.
PETS
Such is the scale of disruption under a no-deal scenario, that among the government’s 105 “guidance” papers is one about travelling with pets. Under the EU Pet Travel Scheme, owners of dogs, cats and ferrets can travel with their animals to and from the EU provided they hold a valid EU pet passport. But under a no-deal Brexit, pet owners could face a whole series of hurdles, including consulting a vet four months in advance of travel and ensuring their pets comply with a number of tests and vaccinations. The animal might also have to undergo inspection when entering the EU country.