CURTAILMENT CONUNDRUM

The Herald’s Chris Varcoe asked energy experts, Should Notley cut Alberta’s oil output?

In the words of one former Alberta energy minister, Premier Rachel Notley is facing a “oncein-a-generation” decision.

The head of the Alberta Federation of Labour calls it “the toughest decision” Notley has faced as premier.

In the coming days, Notley must decide if the province will use its powers to throttle back crude production in Alberta, despite deep divisions within the industry over the issue.

Several refiners and producers oppose the idea, seeing it as the heavy hand of government interfering with a free energy market.

Other producers and industry experts — and United Conservative Party Leader Jason Kenney — view it as the only short-term option to fix a market broken by federal mishandling of new pipeline construction.

Experts say the move could bring congested oil markets into balance and reduce the differential now crippling Alberta crude prices.

With three provincial envoys talking to oilpatch CEOs, the ball is in the premier’s court. A decision is expected within days.

“This is a crisis and there will be blood in the streets very quickly if this carries on for long,” says former Alberta energy minister Ken Hughes. “I would pursue a careful course of curtailment of production.”

Another former energy minister, Ted Morton, disagrees, saying the risks are too great.

“Part of the reason the stakes are so high is because nobody knows what the consequences of either course of action might be,” says Morton.

With these billion-dollar issues at play, I spoke recently with experts about whether mandatory curtailment would work, the possible risks, and what advice they would offer the province.

Here’s an edited and abbreviated transcript of what they said about Alberta’s looming curtailment question.