Stats providing a skewed view of unemployment

Province’s economic recovery bringing about little respite

If we are indeed in the midst of an economic recovery in this province, then the ordinary Calgarian must feel as joyful as a suddenly legless man getting a lowball offer on his best pair of shoes.

Much as the start of any new year should warrant an optimistic frame of mind in contemplating the months ahead, it is darn difficult to be such a happy clapper in the face of the latest economic statistics emanating from Alberta.

Of course, stats can be cherry-picked to fit most viewpoints, as we see when politicians jump aboard upbeat jobs numbers in a Twitter heartbeat, while only the sound of silence greets any depressing data.

So don’t expect to hear much gushing hyperbole from Premier Rachel Notley about the December labour numbers arising from Alberta.

Monthly data show 17,000 fewer Albertans had jobs compared to November as the provincial unemployment rate rose to 6.4 per cent. Calgary’s jobless rate for December actually fell to 7.6 per cent, though such an atrocious number is difficult to term good news.

Now the entirely valid criticism of this month-by-month statistical reporting is that such results can be easily affected by one-off events (the sudden hiring of people to work in marijuana outlets perhaps), or are simply skewed in one direction or another by margins of error in polling.

Therefore looking at year-against-year statistics gives a much clearer image of how both the province and the city are doing, following a downturn lasting longer than most folks have ever experienced here in Wild Rose Country.

And those numbers show that if indeed we are recovering, as economists with safe jobs and defined benefit pension plans love to tell us, then that recovery is akin to being taken off your death bed and told to rejoice that you’re now merrily ensconced in intensive care.

In December 2017 there were 2,320,400 Albertans working. Twelve months later that had risen to 2,342,000, an anemic gain of 21,600 jobs across the entire province.

But at least it is going in the right direction and indeed allows the tall foreheads and political spin-doctors to blather on about a provincial rebound, though thankfully we no longer hear about those wondrous “green shoots” of economic renewal, which have joined the speech writing garbage can alongside that infamous phrase “social licence.”

So where have these extra 21,600 jobs come from? Again, on a monthly basis, there are ebbs and flows in all directions, but a full year tells an interesting tale.

Did we see a jump in construction workers, farmers, or oil and gas employees compared to those toiling away in December 2017? Nope. Sadly, all those subsets saw actual decreases.

But some group must have been hiring otherwise we’d be going to true economic hell in a proverbial hand basket.

Yes, that group would be those designated by Alberta Labour statisticians as health-care and social assistance workers.

In December 2017, there were 266,200 such employees while a year later that workforce jumped to 289,600, easily the biggest employment increase during that 12-month time frame.

So, looking at those two numbers in unison, we find 21,600 more people working in December than a year previous, and 23,400 extra Albertans employed in health care and social assistance across that same time frame.

Let’s make the assumption (a rather large one, I grant you) that these extra health and social workers hired during 2018 were needed to do valuable work.

Now that shines an entirely different light on this recovery word, doesn’t it?

When the only large-scale, overall annual growth in employment in our province arises in a field in which those hired are expected to deal with the physical, emotional and mental wellbeing of fellow Albertans, then what does that say about our actual economy?

Perhaps it says too many people are experiencing increased sickness and depression because their future looks so bleak.

Recovering from that will not be easy, no matter what the so-called experts might tell us.