Taking the measure of Scheer
It’s fair to say the “scary” Andrew Scheer meme has not really caught on.
As the Conservative leader pointed out at this year’s Press Gallery dinner, “It’s like trying to waterboard the Pillsbury Doughboy.”
Instead, a motley collection of unions and leftists, Engage Canada, is launching a new front — an attack ad claiming “weak” Andrew Scheer will cut taxes for “his wealthy friends,” cancel child benefits and privatize Canada’s health care system.
This is the same group that warned if Stephen Harper was re-elected in 2015, it would be the end of history.
Thankfully, reforms to the elections advertising rules mean Engage Canada will have nowhere near the firepower it had four years ago when unions like Unifor and the United Steelworkers contributed more than $400,000 each. The new rules cap total third party spending at $1 million in the pre-campaign period, from June 30 until the writ drops.
Despite the curb on its ability to sow alarm and apprehension, Engage Canada is intent on undermining Scheer while he remains an unknown commodity to many Canadians.
Scheer’s response has been to slowly outline what a Conservative government under his leadership might look like. Two years on from his election as party leader, Scheer remains an enigma, even though most opinion polls suggest that if an election were held tomorrow, he would be prime minister.
He was elected as the continuity candidate — the man who could preserve the Conservative alliance that Harper built, focusing on the issues that bound the party together and glossing over those that divided it. His leadership was light on policy, and has remained so. He is fundamentally a shy man — he admitted that he hated talking about himself when he took soundings
about a leadership bid. Even journalists who have followed his progress for the past 15 years are hard pressed to articulate Scheer’s vision.
That has begun to change with the series of speeches he has been making around the country in the past couple of weeks — on foreign policy, on the economy and Tuesday on immigration (climate change and the Constitution are still to come). In his immigration address, Scheer offered the perfect riposte to the suggestion that he is sympathetic to white supremacists and the tapeworm of intolerance and bigotry.
The Conservative leader was explicit — “there is no room in a peaceful and free country like Canada for intolerance, racism or extremism of any kind,” he said.
He reinforced his belief that immigration is a net positive contributor to the Canadian economy. But he was critical of a Liberal Party that has, he said, undone the progress on the immigration file made by previous Conservative governments to speed up processing and eliminate backlogs.
The failure by the Trudeau government to stem the flow of illegal migrants has led to a growth in the number of people who think immigration should be reduced, and in those who have lost faith in the fairness of the system.
Most of all, he censured the Liberals for calling its critics racists and bigots.
Scheer said his faith and upbringing instilled in him a commitment to social justice that flows from conservative principles of individual responsibility.
He said his late mother had helped Syrian refugees settle in Ottawa and that they had reciprocated her compassion by visiting her in hospital. The Liberals have said they will increase Canada’s immigration target to 350,000 by 2021; Maxime Bernier’s fledgling People’s Party wants the number next year to be cut to 250,000. Scheer said the numbers game is a “red herring” — that the economic and social reality will dictate the level.
But the federal Conservatives have long been pro-immigration — in 2015, levels were at a historic high of 271,833 and over the course of the previous decade 2.8 million people had arrived as permanent residents, mainly from countries like the Philippines, India, China and Pakistan.
Scheer said he would safeguard and emphasize economic migration, at a time when the mix planned by the Liberals will see economic class migrants decrease as a proportion, compared to family reunification cases and refugees.
“We need the world’s best and brightest to choose Canada,” he said.
The focus on economic migrants might reduce the Conservative Party’s appeal in immigrant communities that like the Liberal pledge to bring in grandparents. But Scheer attempted to patch up the relationship with ethnic communities that deserted the Conservatives at the last election by pointing to the things that unite them — hard work, entrepreneurship, faith, family, free worship, and respect for the rule of law.
“The Conservatives are alone in being the last true ‘big tent’ national party,” he said.
Harper won three elections by portraying his party as moderate and mainstream.
By refusing to pander to the resentful backlash against newcomers that has been a hallmark of authoritarian populism elsewhere in the world, Scheer has frustrated his critics and given the Conservative Party the prospect of growing support beyond its base.
Similarly, the decision to drop a previous pledge to balance the budget within two years blunts Liberal claims that Scheer will cut billions from public services. The acknowledgment that he will not be able to make $20 billion deficits disappear in two budgetary cycles is a recognition of voters’ fundamental hypocrisy — they want lots of government spending and lower taxes.
In a previous speech, Scheer said dramatic spending cuts are not necessary to balance the budget — “simply taking a responsible, measured approach to spending growth will go a long way”.
That sounds a lot like the budget balancing itself. But it is very much in keeping with his predecessor’s approach — incremental progress, rather than smash-the-system revolution. That doesn’t seem particularly scary or weak.