CONSERVATIVE MINORITY
On the eve of the French-language debate, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh reiterated his pledge not to support a Conservative government, a stance that stems from Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer’s past comments against same-sex marriage that were made in Parliament in 2005.
But in the unlikely scenario that Singh backtracks from this position, Conservative strategist Rachel Curran, former director of policy to Stephen Harper, says that the NDP and Conservatives could end up aligning on issues related to affordability. “Both parties are concerned with affordability and have campaigned on affordability, even though they are positioning the issues differently. If the Conservatives are in a position to implement tax reductions on lower-income groups, this is something that won’t be difficult for the NDP to support,” Curran said.
Tim Powers, vice-president of Summa Strategies, says that the NDP and Conservatives could also align on housing reform. “The Conservatives will want to change the mortgage stress test, perhaps diminish it. Doing that may be appealing to all parties, including the NDP.”
The NDP has not clearly outlined where they stand on the stress tests, introduced by the Trudeau government, but have said that they would like to re-introduce 30-year term mortgages, which would essentially lower monthly costs.
Powers points out that during the Conservative minority government of Stephen Harper, the NDP and the Liberals supported a volunteer firefighters tax credit brought about by former finance minister Jim Flaherty. “Most of where these two parties can perhaps reach a compromise will be issues around tax reform,” he said. Both Curran and Powers agree that the prospect of a Conservative minority having to find compromise with the Green Party will be a tough. “The problem with these two parties are that their positions on climate change in particular are virtually irreconcilable,” Curran said. “The carbon tax will be a real sticking point for the Greens, because their platform is essentially transitioning away from oil and gas development very quickly and that is a no-go territory for any Conservative government,” she added.
In the first English-language debate last Monday, Green Party leader Elizabeth May told Scheer that he will not be elected as prime minister, signalling a dismissal on her part as to the prospect of any future collaboration.
Powers says the only common ground the two parties could have is on conservation. “Harper had tons of common ground with all the parties on conservation. The initiative to plant trees is something that they can get around and in fact conservatives have always concerned themselves with conservation in order to seek out common ground with the opposition parties,” he said.
One of the most contentious issues during the election campaign so far has been Quebec’s Bill 21, a provincial decree that bans public servants in Quebec from donning religious headgear or symbols. On that front, a Conservative minority government under Scheer has already made it clear that the federal government will not intervene on the ban, which for the separatist Bloc Québécois could be a key sticking point.
“The Conservatives and the Bloc are aligned on Bill 21. We saw that in the English debate. So that’s a given,” said Powers. “Mr. Scheer could bring forward a budget that talks about a separate uniform tax code for Quebec. The Bloc will not oppose that, so that’s where a deal could be made,” he added.
The Quebec provincial government has asked federal leaders for a commitment to a single income tax return for Quebec, which is a demand that the Bloc is aligned with. “Scheer has already said that his party is the only party that’s prepared to work with Quebec on that,” said Curran. “And so the Conservatives are pitching themselves as the party that is going to respect provinces which is the Bloc’s ultimate objective.”
Where both parties might find themselves at loggerheads with each other is on Scheer’s proposed national energy corridor that would cross through Quebec. It has perhaps been one of the leading reasons why Conservative support is waning in the province, in favour of the Bloc.