Scheer parked Ford, to his own detriment
Conservatives should have had more in Ontario
It’s no surprise that this week’s federal election was decided by Ontario voters. Despite political parties’ obsession with Quebec, Ontario is the province where elections are won or lost. With more than onethird of federal seats, it can hardly be otherwise.
What was a little more perplexing was the strength of Ontarians support for the Liberals. Ontarians voted like it was 2015. For them, the Justin Trudeau government is still bright and shiny, as if multiple campaign promises were not broken and the Liberal leader didn’t embarrass himself and the country with the Snc-lavalin mess and his goofy blackface stunts. The Liberals’ Ontario seat total was one less than what they received in 2015. If that was a rebuke, it was the mildest one ever.
Why did the Conservatives fail so badly in Ontario and what does the federal result mean for the future of Ontario Premier Doug Ford?
The first point to consider is that voting Liberal is the default position in Ontario. Voters supported Liberals provincially for 15 years despite performance that was mediocre on a good day. Conservatives are the people Ontarians elect when the Liberals finally have become absolutely intolerable. Clearly, they have not reached that point yet in the minds of about 40 per cent of voters.
Still, it’s remarkable that last year Ontario voters chose a PC party that offered balanced budgets and the end to Ontario’s form of carbon pricing. This year, Ontarians voted for huge deficits and an ever-increasing carbon tax. Did the electorate change dramatically in a year, or was it the Conservative campaign that fell short?
It’s pretty clear that Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer made tactical errors in Ontario, and the biggest one was sidelining Ford. The Ontario premier was always going to be a handy foil for Trudeau.
All Trudeau had to do in Ontario was keep repeating his hypnotic mantra of “Doug Ford, cuts.” No doubt that resonated with the 60 per cent of voters who didn’t support Ford last year.
The challenge for Scheer was how to counter that, and the decision was to ask Ford to lay low so that Scheer could pretend he didn’t exist. That made it seem as if Scheer agreed with Trudeau, that a Conservative government making cuts was a bad thing. It was a weak play that became significantly weaker when Scheer released a platform proposing $53 billion in cuts. Eliminating the deficit Trudeau has built up would mean cutting something. Scheer needed to own that, not dodge it.
On Tuesday, Scheer finally criticized Trudeau for “demonizing” Ford. Good point, but he was 41 days late.
By sidelining Ford, Scheer kept the premier intact as a liability but lost the advantages he could bring. Ford is a strong campaigner who has had success in reaching immigrants and blue collar workers in the suburbs around Toronto, an area where Scheer failed to connect.
The Scheer team thought their guy was more popular than Ford, but Ontario PC internal polling shows the opposite. Ford had better hope it’s right and there is reason to believe it is. After a rough first year, Ford is well on the way to normalizing his government.
The other surprise in the Ontario vote was how little Trudeau had to offer Ontarians to receive a huge victory in the province. Rarely have so many voters given so much support and got so little in return.
The sole significant promise was last-minute support for Toronto’s proposed Ontario Line subway, an idea Liberals reluctantly endorsed because it was pushed by Ford. The Liberals will spend a few billion dollars on the subway plan, eventually, but it is from a
IF (ONE LESS SEAT) WAS A REBUKE, IT WAS THE MILDEST ONE EVER.
pot of transit money already promised in 2017.
At least Toronto did better than Ottawa. The capital got a promise to “champion” repurposing an old railway bridge so that pedestrians and cyclists can easily cross the Ottawa River. The Liberals didn’t say how much they would contribute to the estimated $10 million cost.
There will be the usual pots of money for infrastructure and affordable housing, but Ontario can get in line like other provinces. Certainly not first in line, though. That position is permanently reserved for Quebec, Canada’s second most important province electorally.
Quebec voters are smart. They know which side their bread is buttered on and they really don’t care which party does the buttering, as long as it is liberally applied. Ontario voters, in contrast, might want to re-examine their voting strategy. Ontario MPS dominate the Liberal caucus, but will Trudeau work with Ford after spending months criticizing him? That’s a big unknown for Ontarians.