WHAT’S NEXT FOR ALBERTA?
It’s a proposal that experts are calling an “empty threat,” an idea overblown by social media and a scenario that Alberta is “very, very far from.” But proponents of separation say such a move could be achieved if the idea had support from a majority of citizens.
Since the Oct. 21 election saw the federal Conservatives sweep all but one seat across Alberta and Saskatchewan and Canada’s Liberal prime minister re-elected, talk of independence has ramped up online, and “Wexit” rallies are planned in Calgary, Red Deer and Edmonton next month.
But one local expert suggests that rather than focusing political frustrations on talks of separation and equalization, fixes to some federal-provincial fiscal arrangements might result in more concrete changes for the West.
University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe sees the call for separation as “an empty threat” that would only lead to more challenges for Alberta, such as building pipelines through other jurisdictions. Where Alberta and Ottawa could have a productive conversation, he added, is around federal health and social transfers to provinces.
“Enlarging those payments, having them grow faster than just the overall growth of the economy because of an aging population — that’s something that I think we do need to think about,” Tombe said.
Other potential changes could include adjustments to the fiscal stabilization program, which aims to provide some federal insurance to provinces that see sharp drops in revenue. “That program currently is very, very small, and so provides basically no meaningful insurance,” Tombe said. “So enlarging it, that’s something that would not just have helped Alberta during the recession, but would help any province going through a recession or some kind of unique shock.”
But when it comes to Canada’s equalization program, “Alberta doesn’t really have a lot to gain from any particular tweak,” Tombe said.
“Because our income levels are so high, there doesn’t exist any reasonable reform proposal that would result in Alberta getting equalization,” he said. “That being said, Saskatchewan does have a case. So there are reasonable tweaks to the formula that would result in them receiving payment.”
Former northeastern B.C. Conservative MP Jay Hill, who lives in Calgary, is among those advocating for Alberta and Saskatchewan to separate in the wake of the election results.
“To me there’s a thin line between being a frustrated federalist and being a reluctant separatist, and I’m afraid that Mr. Trudeau, by various acts, has erased that line, at least for me, and I suspect for hundreds of thousands of other westerners, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan,” he said.
Hill believes residents from both provinces need to persuade their premiers “to at least consider holding referendums ... and ask a clear question of whether they want to endeavour, at least, to negotiate the exit of those two provinces from Confederation.”
He even sees parts of B.C., such as the northern Peace Region that he used to represent, wanting to seek their own vote.
“To me, we’ve got to that point where our relationship with Confederation is dysfunctional, and that no matter how much we regret it, no matter how messy it’s going to be, that the only alternative, just as in a personal relationship, is divorce,” Hill said.
One major impact that Alberta would face in the event of separation would be losing access to federal health programs, said Pierre-gerlier Forest, director of the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.
Forest said while Alberta might be able to afford going without federal health transfers, there are many other important health services overseen by the federal government, such as health technology evaluation, disease prevention, preparation for epidemics, the national health data system and improving health for Indigenous populations.
“I’m sure most people don’t have any form of preoccupation with the evaluation of the scan machine in which they are placed by the doctor, or the prescription pill they receive,” he said. “But in the end, this work has to be performed somewhere. It is, at this moment, performed mostly with federal support, with people that have been recruited thanks to the capacity of the federal government to mobilize the right skills and the right people.”
Eric Adams, vice-dean of the University of Alberta faculty of law, said regional tensions have always been a part of Canadian constitutional politics.
“Although this dynamic in the present moment seems to be unprecedented, I should think it’s part of a much longer trend that’s natural in a federation as large as Canada’s, which is that sometimes some of those places and some of those regions feel alienated from the centre of power,” he said.
When it comes to the mechanics of separation as a legal matter, the rules are somewhat uncertain, and it’s “incredibly complicated,” he noted.
“What we do know is that the extent of the constitutional unwinding that would need to take place is extensive, dramatic and obviously a certain amount of chaos is necessarily introduced,” Adams said.
“So the idea that there would be an orderly or easy exit of any one province from the federation is just dreaming, in that the number of legal, constitutional, political, economic, social and cultural connections that bind these provinces one to the other and to the federation are so numerous and so long-standing that severing them would be a gargantuan political effort.”
However, separation wouldn’t be impossible, Adams noted, as constitutions can be amended and unwritten. According to the rules in the Constitution itself, an amendment would require unanimous support from both Parliament and all the provinces. But according to a 1998 Supreme Court judgment on the legality of Quebec separating from Canada, if a clear answer arises from a clear referendum question, what comes next is negotiating separation.
“If you look at the rule book, it seems next to impossible,” Adams said. “If you look to the Supreme Court of Canada’s statement on separation, it looks exceptionally difficult but may be feasible, if ... those negotiations produce some workable separation arrangement.”
Adams urged caution in measuring the extent of political frustrations in Alberta, given that everyone has access to publish their thoughts through social media.
“We can sometimes misinterpret political movements in such an environment, and the rest of Canada, I think, may be under the mistaken impression that there is a viable and vibrant separation movement in Alberta politics taking hold,” he said.
“I would need to be convinced of a lot more evidence before I thought that that was a reality.”
To me there’s a thin line between being a frustrated federalist and being a reluctant separatist. JAY HILL