Trump has not got a clue about the Middle East
Reckless president risks no-win war, say Mike Shaikh and Brenton Harding.
As we watch, with growing distress, tragic events in the Middle East, there are points worth examining to put these events in perspective and provide a warning.
First, it was then Saudi Ambassador to the United States, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who observed of the first Gulf War that it was probably the first war in history fought over cultural differences. Will a new conflict with Iran become the second such war?
Second, the nations in this potential conflict are led by two fundamentally different leaders. Iran’s anti-american regime has been for decades led by what westerners consider to be religious zealots. Iranian society may be dividing based on reports of civil unrest among a new generation of post-revolution Iranians who want more freedom.
On the other side is the United States led by an incompetent businessman who lacks any understanding of the very fundamentals of his position. Unlike his days atop Manhattan’s Trump Tower, Donald Trump cannot do just whatever he wants.
Since King John signed the Magna Carta in 1215, leaders have had to follow the laws as passed by the representatives of the people.
And more, Trump must learn that instead of attempting to bully, of all countries, Iran, he will have to use his much-vaunted skill at negotiation to produce a peaceful resolution to a problem he has created.
Now, perhaps in an attempt to burnish his image of ineptness, he proposes a simplistic solution to the incredibly complex, long-running Arab-israeli conflict. While any attempt at bringing peace is welcomed, it appears Trump is, ironically, attempting to interfere with Israeli elections to aid his friend Benjamin Netanyahu.
Only the most misguided Trump supporter can believe this proposal has any hope whatsoever, coming from an administration that prepared this proposal without input from the Palestinians and from a president who moved his embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem over the longstanding, heated objections of Palestinians.
It is easy to predict, despite Trump’s threats, this proposal will be barely a flash in the history of the Arab-israeli conflict. Its longest life will exist in the White House echo chamber.
Trump critics accuse him of stirring up problems with Iran as a distraction from his impeachment troubles.
As much as that may be the immediate motivation of an erratic president, keep in mind it was 2018 when, despite the pleadings of America’s allies, he unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Even more dangerous are reasons for his actions. Quite simply Trump has absolutely no understanding of how government, international relations and diplomacy work. His supporters claim he is a disrupter, a feeble justification for someone who ignores his advisers, paying little attention to information provided by one of the world’s most extensive and professional intelligence communities. He has his own ideas that bear little resemblance to reality.
It seems few of Trump’s actions are based on facts as evidenced by the scramble in the administration to justify the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.
At the top, the Trump administration is attempting to justify the killing by claiming Soleimani was about to launch an attack on U.S. embassies. This seems to have come as news to the foreign service and defence establishments.
Undertaking the Soleimani operation, whatever its merit, at a time of tension in the Middle East was foolhardy, a hallmark of the Trump administration.
In past conflicts, presidents have acted with the support of the United Nations and America’s allies. Should this president attempt a new adventure America is very likely to stand alone, without even a shred of international legitimacy. Given the hostile view Iran has of Canada, we must remain out of any conflict. Even then we risk being side-swiped by American adventurism.
During the waning days of Richard Nixon’s presidency, chief of staff General Alexander Haig established a check on the president’s ability to make war. With his past erratic behaviour, one hopes the current secretary of defence has a mechanism to prevent Trump from a similar folly.
Devastation of America’s international prestige and leadership is attributable to one person. Regardless of who acts — Congress, members of the administration or allies — steps must be taken to prevent a reckless president from taking America into what will be a no-win war.
For the sake of the entire world, America’s relationship with Iran needs to be established by negotiation, a subject about which Trump claims to be an expert.
Mike Shaikh is a Calgary businessman and former honorary consul for trade for the government of Pakistan. Brenton Harding is a former Alberta diplomatic representative in the United States.