Four bold predictions for Super Bowl 54
But sorry, you’ll have to come up with your own projection of winning team
Sunday’s Super Bowl will feature not only some of the best players in all of the NFL, but some of the sport’s best play callers, as well. Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid, with help from co-ordinator Eric Bieniemy, is considered along with San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan to be among the best offensive minds in the game.
But don’t discount the brain power on the opposite side of the ball, either. Niners defensive co-ordinator Robert Saleh is a rising star, and on the opposite sideline is a co-ordinator in Steve Spagnuolo, whose New York Giants defence fuelled one of the biggest Super Bowl upsets in history, when in the 2007-08 season they beat the previously undefeated New England Patriots 17-14.
With coaches on this level having two weeks to prepare their game plans, fans should expect to see some surprises early and often. Trying to predict what exactly those surprises will be is no easy task, but we took our best shot at gazing into the future. Here are four bold predictions for Super Bowl 54:
The 49ers will get out to an early lead, but the Chiefs will come back.
The Chiefs’ defence is likely going to have a tough time slowing down what should be a pretty impressive 15-play script from Shanahan to start the game.
Shanahan almost certainly will have a few surprises in that early game plan, but it will be anchored around the running game out of the I-formation, led by fullback Kyle Juszczyk. The Niners used the I-formation more often and more effectively than any team in the NFL this season, according to NFL Nextgen stats, running 43 per cent of plays out of the I-formation and averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
That plays to the weakness of the Chiefs’ defence, which allowed a league-worst 6.4 yards per run to opponents using the I-formation (which they did 12 per cent of the time). But thanks to Spagnuolo, the Chiefs have been able to fix their problems as games have gone on. Look for the 49ers to establish the run early in the Super Bowl, and for Spagnuolo to counter with aggressive blitzes to try to slow down the 49ers like he did against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship Game.
And we know the Chiefs are capable of coming back. Patrick Mahomes has faced 10-point deficits five times this season, and won four of those games. He overcame a 24-0 deficit against the Houston Texans in the divisional round and a 10-point deficit against Tennessee in the AFC championship game. He doesn’t panic, and he and coach Reid are able to adjust their offensive approach based on any early problems.
The most important running back in the game will be Kansas City’s Damien Williams.
Look for the 49ers to gain more rushing yards than the Chiefs, but
Williams nonetheless will be an X-factor. Despite having just 498 rushing yards in an injury-plagued regular season, he has five rushing touchdowns over the past five games. I’ll predict he goes for 65 yards and one or two touchdowns in this one.
Saleh will rightly be focused on containing Kansas City’s speed at wide receiver and tight end. That should create some running lanes for Williams against an ordinarily stout San Francisco defensive front, and Williams could be a factor in the passing game as well.
Williams certainly is capable of big games. He had a 125-yard game against the Minnesota Vikings earlier this season, and finished the year with a 124-yard effort against the Los Angeles Chargers. He doesn’t have the same talent level as former Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt, but his versatility should allow him to play a big role.
The Niners will pressure Patrick Mahomes, but get only two sacks and no interceptions.
San Francisco’s rise this season has stemmed from two big reasons: getting Jimmy Garoppolo back healthy at quarterback, and the additions of edge rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford to create a ferocious pass rush. The 49ers went from creating only seven turnovers and 37 sacks in 2018 to 27 turnovers and 48 sacks this season, with much of that due to the improved pass rush.
It seems foolish to assume that San Francisco won’t be able to get some pressure on Mahomes, even with Kansas City’s formidable offensive line, but lost in all of Mahomes’ outstanding statistics the past two seasons has been his ability to avoid sacks and protect the football.
Despite missing two games with a dislocated kneecap and dealing with limited mobility as a result of that injury and a sprained ankle, Mahomes was sacked just 17 times in 14 games. He’s had just two games in which he has been sacked more than two times, and this season, he threw just five interceptions.
His offensive line doesn’t get enough credit. Tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz have each been beaten for only one sack this season.
The Niners’ best chance to pull away in this one is to force turnovers, as they’ve done well all season long, but look for Mahomes to take care of the ball and avoid costly sacks.
Mahomes will test Richard Sherman early, then try to pick on the other Niners cornerbacks.
According to Stats pass, Sherman had only 57 passes thrown on him in 16 regular-season games. Only 36 were completed, for 324 yards and a touchdown, meaning teams completed just more than two passes per game against him. Sherman is a master of studying routes and quarterbacks, and using his footwork to take a receiver out of the play.
But given that Reid has had two weeks to dial up a game plan, look for the Chiefs to test Sherman early, knowing that will be their best chance to catch him off-guard. But once both teams settle into the flow of the game, it will be much more likely that Kansas City targets cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and K’waun Williams, who typically defends the slot.
The 49ers gave Moseley the starting job after Ahkello Witherspoon struggled, giving up six touchdown passes. Moseley has been slightly better, but he’s still a potential weak spot on a defence that doesn’t have many. Look for Reid and Mahomes to try to attack the corners other than Sherman the rest of the game.
The Washington Post