Get set to hear some Alberta budget blues

Jason Kenney might wish he’d stayed back in Ottawa.

Because today things aren’t exactly going his way: witness those increasingly ludicrous pipeline protests, a federal government that couldn’t give a single darn about this province and a balanced-budget plan that’s heading toward some jagged, financial rocks.

And, just when he must have thought things couldn’t get bleaker, up steps Teck Resources to announce it’s ditching a $20-billion oilsands mine project because it’s seen the writing on the wall: Don’t Invest In Canada, wording so prominent it could be read from space.

How bad things are these days is likely to be revealed this afternoon, when the provincial budget is handed down. It won’t be pretty, no matter how much lipstick is smeared upon this particular pig.

Back in those heady days, when running against Rachel Notley and her daft Dippers, there emerged a promise from Jason’s lips that not only would we balance the provincial budget in a mere handful of years but front-line services, in hot-button areas such as health and education, wouldn’t be hit.

That was then. This is now. We’re already piling on close to another nine billion bucks in debt during this financial year: these governmental “years” always start April 1, a suitably foolish indicator for taxpayers.

Meanwhile, global energy prices are tanking as this spreading coronavirus plays havoc with worldwide growth hopes: watch support for saving the planet by curbing carbon dioxide emissions crumble like a Stephen Duckett cookie once people instead start worrying about saving their jobs or, heaven help us, their lives.

The sad reality here in Alberta is that things are getting worse, not better.

How bad is it? Well, in January the provincial labour participation rate — a better economic litmus test than the oft-used unemployment rate — was at a 40-year low. Yes, it was back when those Flames were still in Atlanta that so few people, percentage-wise, were working or actively searching for a job.

(A quick quiz: what do 1980 and 2020 have in common? Stumped? OK, here’s a clue: the prime ministers’ surnames both began with a T and ended with a U. A coincidence, I’m sure.)

There are umpteen other depressing statistics: housing starts, new car sales, retail spending and building permits all down, year to year. Meanwhile, unemployment and bankruptcies are up.

So, hoping to keep spending close to flat and narrow the deficit with a revenue surge courtesy of rising provincial GDP during the upcoming years seems an increasingly problematic strategy. (But it sounds good. No pain, no lost votes.)

This leaves that prominent promise about sparing front-line services in health and education looking suspiciously threadbare.

Ouch. Yet, if the UCP doesn’t make serious deficit reduction headway this early in its mandate, there’s little chance such bitter medicine will be spoon-fed to Albertans once the next provincial election nears.

Politics doesn’t work that way: party affiliation is irrelevant.

Nope, if this balancing business is going to get done, then it must start a-rolling today.

So, will it? Or will we get the usual excuses every government rolls out when things get somewhat tricky, compared to what they campaigned upon?

My guess? We’ll heap blame upon the federal Liberals, along with a side dish of complaints levied against the various protest groups currently winning this nasty war over future energy development in Canada.

And, due to this noxious combination of opposition, there’ll be fudging of that previous balancing timeline.

Or maybe, instead, we really will bite that fiscal bullet and accept that a provincial government should be able to run Alberta, with a population of only 4.4 million people, by holding annual spending closer to $50 billion.

We’ll get a good idea this afternoon, which path this government plans to take. This is their show now: blaming the previous lot passes its sell-by date this afternoon.

Oh well, we might as well try to enjoy the show.