Highlights from UCP’S forecast

■ Alberta’s economy is forecast to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2020, paced by rising oil production and capital investment;

■ Provincial deficit expected to fall by $700 million, to $6.8 billion in 2020-21, with a $700-million surplus seen by 2022-23;

■ Total debt continues to rise, growing to $77 billion this fiscal year and $87.8 billion by 2022-23;

■ Total revenues forecast to fall by almost $1 billion, to $50 billion, due largely to expected lower investment returns and bitumen royalties. Operating expenses are down 1.7 per cent to $47.8 billion, remaining relatively flat for the following two years;

■ Total expenses down 2.9 per cent, to $56.8 billion, due largely to removal of crude-by-rail contracts;

■ WTI crude price forecast at US$58 per barrel in 2020-21 and US$62 the following year, with the differential rising to $19. Oil production expected to grow by 170,000 bpd, quadruple 2019 gains;

■ Bitumen royalties estimated at $3.2 billion, almost one-third lower than 2019-20 as differential widens;

■ New taxes: Implementation of 20 per cent tax on retail price of vaping products, including all liquids and devices, expected to raise $4 million in 2020. Extension of four per cent tourism levy to short-term rentals to generate $3 million;

■ New Investment and Growth Strategy to include $75 million over three years to attract investment;

■ Alberta unemployment rate forecast to fall to 5.1 by 2023, far below analyst expectations;

■ Creation of a program

to fast-track processing of visas for university grads wanting to launch a business in Alberta;

■ Retail sales growth of four

per cent forecast for 2020 and 4.6 in 2021, following a 0.5 per cent decline in 2019;

■ Cannabis continues to be

a money loser for government, with expected losses totalling $85 million over next three years;

■ Government contribution to education funding down $9 million, to $7.2 billion. Overall spending up $100 million over last year, reliant on school board using own-source revenues and reserves;

■ Public sector job losses

— largely through attrition — pegged at 1,436 full-time positions, with advanced education (398) and agriculture/forestry (277) taking biggest hits;

■ No new funding for Calgary’s Green Line transit project;

■ Calgary Cancer Centre funding remains unchanged, with $265 million earmarked for construction in 2020-21;

■ Funding for Deerfoot

Trail upgrades accelerated with $4 million in 2020-21 and $33 million the following year. Highway 1A funding stalled, with only $1 million tagged for 2020/21;

■ Top range of provincial camping fees to rise to $36, from $26.