Cut contacts by 25 per cent, Tam says

Weeks, months to get through second wave: PM

Canadians are being urged yet again to limit their contacts with others to prevent a resurgence of COVID-19. But while the second wave will require “weeks and months” of sacrifice, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seemed to be ruling out any repeat of the nationwide spring shutdown.

According to the latest federal modelling data, confirmed cases in Canada could exceed 8,000 daily by December if people maintain their current rate of contact with others. Expose themselves to more people, the pandemic will resurge even “faster and stronger.”

“We know what bad behaviour leads to,” Trudeau said at a media briefing Friday. “We know when people actually do follow instructions and manage to reduce their contacts and do the things that matter, we know that we do see better outcomes.”

However, “We shut down our economy and our communities and our country in March, and yet the curve continued for a number more months, and that's what we really have to remember,” he added.

“This is temporary but we have to get through it. We have to make sure that it's not just, `OKAY, I'm going to hole down today and not see anyone, or hole down today, tomorrow and this week' — we have to continue to engage in these behaviours, even as it becomes frustrating.”

The country has been able to avoid large- scale shutdowns because more is now known about the virus and how it spreads, said Trudeau. “We are able to do things now in a targeted way that is better able to prevent needing a very blunt instrument of a nationwide massive shutdown,” Trudeau said.

According to the latest federal projections, daily case counts of COVID-19 continue to increase nationally, the percentage of people testing positive is rising across the country, deaths are steadily increasing and confirmed infections are growing across all age groups, though they remain highest among the under 40-year-olds, the update shows.

While growth in Quebec seems to be stabilizing, over the past two weeks British Columbia, the Prairies and Ontario all marked their highest daily case counts since the beginning of the pandemic, Canada's chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam told a media briefing Friday. However, Ontario appears to be dodging its worstcase scenario for the second wave: although cases are still increasing, the growth of the pandemic appears to be slowing, according to provincial data released Thursday.

Premier Doug Ford said on Friday a plan is coming next week to ease COVID-19 restrictions in the province's hot spots.

Restrictions that banned indoor dining in restaurants and bars, and closed gyms were put in place in Toronto, Ottawa, and Peel Region on Oct. 10.

In Manitoba Friday, the government ordered many businesses in the Winnipeg region to close after a record increase in COVID-19 cases.

The province reported 480 new COVID-19 cases — more than double the previous daily record.

Starting Monday, bars and restaurants in the Winnipeg region will only be allowed to offer takeout and delivery.

Movie theatres and concert halls will be closed and most retail stores will be limited to 25 per cent capacity.

Case numbers in the province have been rising for several days, which is testing the capacity of intensive care units in hospitals.

Nationally, the reproduction rate remains above one, meaning every 100 people infected are passing the virus to more than 100 others, “with each new generational spread getting larger,” Tam said. The epidemic dies out when each new case infects less than one person.

According to the shortterm forecast, deaths could reach 10,400 by Nov. 8.

Early forecasts in April predicted Canada could see 11,000 to 22,000 deaths over the course of the pandemic, with fatalities easily topping 300,000 under the worstcase scenario, with no public health measures.

There's been an increase in hospitalizations nationally — an average of more than 1,100 people with COVID-19 were being treated in hospitals on any given day over the past seven days — but it's below the peak of more than 3,000 cases a day during the spring wave.

The average age of death for people dying due to Covid-related illness is 84 in Canada; the youngest was 19, the oldest 107.

If Canadians reduce the rate of contact with other people by 25 per cent, the epidemic is forecasted to come under control.

“After Canadians worked with public health to hammer the COVID-19 curve in the spring, we had our first dance over the summer,” Tam said. Now, “some of us have lost our lead.”

“This virus will cut in anywhere and anytime we let it.”

Tam said people should keep to their household bubbles as much as possible and take “all the necessary precautions” if they have to buy groceries or pick up food.

Not everyone can stay at home. It's hard to reduce contacts when people are working in low-income jobs that require public transit, or living in congested housing. “Not everybody can keep to exact numbers,” Tam acknowledged. “But collectively we need to reduce contact as much as possible.”