DAILY NEWS DIRE, BUT THERE'S HOPE FOR A BRIGHTER SPRING
Good news this week? Hard to believe. But there is some, and it's very positive, indeed.
Amid all the discouraging events — the cancellation of Keystone XL, further bleak predictions on the economy, vaccine shortages — it's clear that Albertans have regained their grip on COVID -19.
This brings real hope that after we fight our way through a glum February, spring will look much brighter.
Daily case counts have dropped from nearly 2,000 in early December to the 600s today. That remains higher than ideal, but it's remarkable progress.
And this is happening even before there's a positive impact from vaccination.
There were dark December days when it was possible the health-care system would be overwhelmed. We might have seen body-bag scenes like those from New York and Los Angeles.
It was a near thing. Far too many people sickened and died.
But the wider crisis didn't happen.
Credit is due to Albertans who took the warnings seriously and complied with restrictions. The messages from Dr. Deena Hinshaw, our chief medical officer of health, stayed firm and consistent, despite all the political noise and acrimony.
Most encouraging, there was no infection bump over the holiday season despite official fears.
Limiting our social lives only to immediate household members, cancelling family visits and dinners, was surely one of the hardest things Albertans have ever been asked to do.
But most people did it, and they'll have a reward — an earlier lifting of restrictions than seemed possible in December.
Now there's a vaccine shortage. This failure is on Ottawa, period.
The Americans, despite their near-collapse in COVID control, have access to several times more doses per capita than Canada does.
And Israel has by far the highest vaccination rate on planet Earth. The country paid a big premium to get priority delivery of shipments.
That may eventually save
Israel a huge amount of money as the economy and people's lives return to normal more quickly.
But even though Canada is far from the head of the pack, in Alberta we can realistically be optimistic about spring.
Longer, warmer days mean people spend more time outside where transmission is less likely.
Such viruses tend to fade in spring, just as COVID-19 did after the first wave last year. That made us too relaxed going into fall.
Vaccination will proceed despite the maddening delays, moving on to older people in the general population, and then to everyone who wants the shot.
As the vulnerable are protected from the disease, pressure on the health system will begin to fall sharply.
The thousands of people who face delays for other medical conditions, often serious ones, will finally start to get their treatments.
There may be bumps along the way — brief infection spikes, local outbreaks, new variants of the virus, maybe more vaccine delays.
But sick as we are of protecting ourselves from infection every day, we know how to do it. Using protective masks, hand hygiene, distancing — they're all ingrained.
The key to optimism is recognizing how far we've come in only a month.
Alberta's seven-day rolling case count per million was Canada's worst in December — just over 400. The death count had also spiked to about 7.5 per million.
Both measures have now dropped sharply, to less than 200 cases per million, and just over four deaths.
All provinces are seeing lower case numbers. This is so recent in Ontario and Quebec that death rates are still trending upward.
The measure most Albertans watch is new cases per day. There were 643 reported on Friday, along with 12 deaths, the latter a substantial drop from some recent days.
The pandemic is still with us. Vigilance is essential.
But there's every reason to believe our long-lost friend, normalcy, is getting ready for a comeback.