YOUTH LEAVING ALBERTA
Seeking opportunities elsewhere
Alberta has long been a magnet for the nation's youth. Young people have flocked here from other provinces. Alberta youth tended to stay.
Playing on this, politicians promoted Alberta as the land of highly educated and skilled young workers.
But now, hard times are draining away the most dynamic and energetic sector of our society.
This isn't surprising given the relentless drumbeat of bad news about the economy.
What is shocking, though, is the magnitude of this flight to places that offer more prospects and hope. And Calgary appears the worst-hit city.
Western Economic Diversification Canada says: “In 2018, Calgary ranked an underwhelming 29th out of 35 Canadian metropolitan areas when it comes to the percentage of residents aged 20 to 24.”
That hurts. It speaks to thousands of Calgary families whose children have already gone elsewhere to work, find partners and have kids.
Ask anybody from the Atlantic provinces how that feels, if you don't know already.
Western Diversification, a federal agency, recently put out a request for proposals for an in-depth study of this corrosive problem, as a prelude to developing support programs.
The bidding closed Jan. 21 and the winner isn't yet known. I was alerted to the document by Ian Large of Leger Research (not a bidder).
“Alberta has long had a young and highly skilled labour force, but the region is at risk of losing this critical asset,” the agency says.
“Low rates of youth entrepreneurism and the current high rates of youth unemployment suggest a mismatch between available skills and the opportunities that currently exist.
“Additionally, the growing number of young entrepreneurs and skilled workers that are choosing to leave Alberta in favour of other jurisdictions seems to indicate that without abundant economic opportunity there are few other incentives to retain or attract young talent.
“In Alberta's urban centres this is an especially worrying trend, particularly when viewed in the context of the current crisis, and the collapse of downtown business communities.”
The flight of young talent is bad enough. The suggestion that there are few opportunities beyond traditional industries is even worse.
And the “collapse of downtown business communities” — harsh language, but true — seems to escalate by the month.
Calgary's downtown office vacancy rate is just under 30 per cent. Edmonton's has risen to 17.9 per cent, bringing cries of alarm.
Edmonton has been slower to sink to the level of Calgary's crisis but appears to be catching up fast.
The lure of the Calgary towers is over for young people, probably for a long while.
Western Diversification adds: “The major economic factors that drive this trend (the departure of young people) are beyond the influence of government, and there is a very real possibility that Alberta's economy will never again resemble what it did prior to the crash in 2014.”
If our governments accept that pessimistic conclusion, we will slide into dependence. I don't think that will happen. Alberta's long history of boom and bust shows we always pull ourselves out somehow.
And yet, there's no questioning the forces that are pulling young people out of the province.
Finally, Western Diversification says: “It is anticipated that the combined impacts of COVID-19 and the ongoing downturn in oil prices will accelerate this trend in cities across the province ...”
There shouldn't be any surprises here for Calgary Economic Development or provincial policy-makers. The question is what can be done about it. The federal agency is hoping to come up with some answers.
It must be added, some young entrepreneurs in areas distant from oil and gas say they're doing very well, building their versions of a new Alberta. Calgary remains a great place for young people to live and work.
But this problem is serious. We need more than fine words about youthful Alberta, when Alberta isn't so youthful anymore.
Low rates of youth entrepreneurism and current high rates of youth unemployment suggest a mismatch between skills and opportunities.