Numbers are deceiving: Raptors a better team with Lowry on the floor
Beating heart of the franchise deserves to have his No. 7 jersey raised to the rafters
Jeff Van Gundy once explained the challenge of putting one's faith entirely in the numbers.
The former Houston Rockets coach was describing a discussion with his then-boss, the former Rockets GM Daryl Morey. The executive was telling the coach to trust in the data. The coach replied that Houston's own numbers said they were better with backup Dikembe Mutombo at centre than all-world starter Yao Ming. Morey said yes, well, obviously they were going to stick with Yao. To which Van Gundy said: “Look, you either believe in this (stuff ) or you don't.”
The word he used was a little spicier than “stuff.”
That brings us to the question of the Toronto Raptors and Kyle Lowry. The numbers are stark. The Raptors sport a 10-16 record on the season with Lowry in the lineup. They were 6-1 when he didn't play. Stretching back to last season, the Raptors are on a 16-1 run absent the services of Lowry.
Given Lowry's age and contract status — he's 34 and a pending free agent — these results must have the members of the Raptors' front office asking themselves whether they believe this, er, stuff. Could they actually be a better team without Lowry?
For the record, here is my position on that question: No.
Lowry has been an all-star six times, deservedly, and he's always been a player whose value goes much deeper than the points and assists he provides. The irony of trying to assess the meaning of the Raptors' record without him is that the NBA already has complicated statistics that put a value on a player's impact on team performance while he's on the floor, adjusting for opponents and teammates, and Lowry has long been the Raptor who looks best by those metrics. Even this year, though the overall team record is poor with him, Lowry is in the top 10 of NBA players in real plus-minus, ahead of, among many others, Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. Lowry's closest teammate, not surprisingly, is his understudy Fred Vanvleet.
The simplest explanation for the disparity in records with and without Lowry is that the Raptors weren't as bad before his injury as their results suggested, and that their goofy 2-8 start included a couple of losses that ought to have been wins.
There are other reasons for the recent hot streak without him: A team that had a lot of roster churn and a brief pre-season is just now finding its legs, coach Nick Nurse's Random Lineup Machine has landed on some new and useful combinations, the return of OG Anunoby from injury, and significant contributions from Norm Powell and Chris Boucher. Take those factors, add in a recovered Lowry, and the Raptors should be something closer to what was expected of them before this weird NBA season began — not quite among the top tier of teams in the East, but comfortably in the playoff mix.
Still, with the league's trade deadline looming next month, the question of what to do about Lowry will be asked repeatedly. If Raptors management doesn't see this group going deep into the playoffs, does it make sense to get as much as they can for a veteran asset who might fetch a good price from a contending team looking for a valuable addition?
For the record, here is my position on that question: No.
I will concede there might be some scenario out there in which the price for Lowry is too high to turn down. But “might” is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
Contending teams almost by definition already have someone competently running their offence, and Lowry's strengths aren't the type that would be easily grafted onto a mostly finished product. He's not someone a team would seek to provide instant offence off the bench or be a tenacious perimeter defender, both of which are traits often sought at the deadline.
Much of Lowry's value to the Raptors comes from his familiarity with his teammates and the systems they run, and his ability to optimize all of that. Stick him on another team for a stretch run and it would be like giving a museum guide a new gig at the art gallery.
Maybe a team, or a combination of teams, would come up with a deal that netted the Raptors a useful building block in return for the rental of Lowry's championship pedigree, but the more likely scenario would see the Raptors settling for a little something to prevent losing him for nothing in the summer.
For the Raptors' fan base, that's a depressing thought.
Lowry is the one constant from the only sustained period of success in the Raptors' 26-year history. He's the player whose jersey should first be raised to the rafters of Scotiabank Arena, if the franchise ever decides to do that sort of thing.
Lowry, beaming behind mirrored sunglasses, holding the Larry O'brien trophy in a fierce hug at the championship parade, will always be one of the happiest photos in franchise history.
His career in Toronto, even if it isn't presently actually in Toronto, shouldn't come to an end in pursuit of asset maximization. This has already been a mess of an NBA season, especially in the dogpile of the East. If you're a Raptors fan, wouldn't you much rather see the team hang on to its beating heart, and just see what happens?
Who'd have predicted a month ago that Russell Wilson might really want out of Seattle and, furthermore, that the Seahawks might go ahead and trade him?
As of Thursday afternoon, neither fire seemed a certainty or even likely but, boy, there's a lot of smoke.
Particularly, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, Las Vegas Raiders and Chicago Bears smoke.
On first glance, it's difficult to let sink in the idea of Russell Wilson not in Seattle. In today's NFL, however, that's not far-fetched at all. Nothing is. Not after Tom Brady relocated a year ago to Tampa Bay after 20 seasons in New England, or after Philip Rivers jumped to the Indianapolis Colts after 17 years with the L.A. Chargers, or with Deshaun Watson desperately wanting out of Houston this off-season.
In that light, none of us should be surprised if Seattle ships out Wilson. Even after nine success-soaked seasons that have included eight playoff appearances, nine playoff wins, two Super Bowl berths and one Super Bowl championship.
Fact is, enough deliberately created and cured buzz has been put out there — significantly, without public denials of any kind from either party — as to make a trade a real possibility. How'd we get here?
A series of reports since Super Bowl Sunday have painted Wilson as a frustrated young man in Seattle — sure of his place as an elite NFL passer on a hall of fame trajectory, but feeling he's doing so without a front office that protects him with much more than a spare-parts offensive line, and without a coaching staff willing to bend enough to construct a pass-centric offence around his unique, top-shelf abilities.
News stories late this week from Theathletic.com and ESPN constitute the largest globs of grease yet thrown onto the bearings of these ever faster spinning wheels.
Theathletic.com cited sources in recounting an incident in November in which Wilson allegedly “stormed out” of a team meeting, after his suggestions for fixing the Seahawks' offence were “dismissed.”
Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll believes in a run-based attack, and several times over the final two months of the season, he underscored his overriding mantra in discussions with reporters.
Carroll did fire offensive co-ordinator Brian Schottenheimer following Seattle's elimination from the playoffs last month in the wild card round. But the smoke has only intensified.
One former Wilson teammate, Brandon Marshall, told Theathletic.com that Wilson is “beyond frustrated” with the Seahawks and “is trying to figure out how to move on in a classy way.”
Others quoted in the article said, conversely, that the 32-year-old is merely engaging in a PR campaign after his production and effectiveness began cratering at midseason.
“He's finally catching heat,” an unnamed source said. “He's trying to protect himself.” Another source said Wilson is merely trying to “save face.” If that's true, then why did Wilson's agent tell ESPN in a story posted Thursday that although the QB wants to remain in Seattle, he'd lift his no-trade clause to be dealt to Dallas, New Orleans, Las Vegas or Chicago?
There would be no need for Wilson's camp to stoke the embers like that if his sole intention was merely to retroactively create an excuse narrative for his late-season swoon.
NFL Network reported Thursday that more than 10 teams have inquired with the Seahawks about Wilson.
It sounds like — feels like — both sides are accelerating this story. Perhaps that's just temporary and calmer minds will prevail.
Would it still constitute the shock of the 2021 off-season if the Seahawks were to proceed and trade Wilson? A month ago, yes.
Now? No.
CANADIAN ATTENDS WOMEN'S CAREER FORUM
A Canadian was among 40 women invited to attend the NFL'S fifth annual Women's Careers in Football Forum, held virtually Wednesday and Thursday. It's Saadia Ashraf — a Montrealer and a former women's tackle quarterback on the Montreal Blitz.
She teaches math at Lindsay Place High School in the Montreal island community of Pointeclaire. She also coaches women's tackle football for Team Canada and the Blitz, as well as the John Abbot College flag football team.
The purpose of the NFL'S annual symposium is to connect women serious about pursuing a career in coaching, scouting or football operations with league or college leaders.
The symposium is the brainchild of the NFL'S senior director of diversity and inclusion, Sam Rapoport, who grew up in Ottawa. Like Ashraf, Rapoport is a former Mcgill University student and ex-quarterback of the Blitz.
Three NFL club owners, seven head coaches and seven GMS spoke over two days to this year's virtually assembled participants.
“Mind blown,” Rapoport tweeted Thursday. “(New England Patriots head) coach (Bill) Belichick and (Tennessee Titans head) coach (Mike) Vrabel share their email addresses with the young coaches, asked them to follow up with them to further develop. This is what it's all about.”
EXTRA POINTS
Free agent J.J. Watt has received multiple contract offers, per ESPN, the richest of which would pay him at least US$15 million per year. Houston and the defensive end mutually agreed to part ways earlier this month. … In a move to create cap space, the Denver Broncos released veteran DT Jurrell Casey.