UCP TROUBLES DEEPEN AS NDP FUNDRAISING SOARS
Conservatives voice dissatisfaction toward Kenney by withholding their donations
Cold hard cash is the lifeblood of political parties. When donations fall sharply, leaders are in trouble.
By that measure, Premier Jason Kenney faces a massive challenge.
In the first quarter of 2021, his United Conservative Party raised $591,598, according to figures posted Friday by Elections Alberta.
That's not pocket change.
But in the same period, Rachel Notley's New Democrats raised $1,186,000.
And the NDP absolutely walloped the UCP in donations under $250, a key measure of support among regular folks.
The official Opposition raised $809,059 from that group. The government party collected only $216,699.
In the higher donation range from $250 up to the $4,000 maximum, the UCP did better ($304,890) but still didn't match the New Democrats ($377,186).
Notley sees the strong fundraising as support for party plans to rebuild and diversify the economy and defend health care.
She won't get into UCP “tribulations and drama,” she says, but feels Albertans are unhappy with Kenney for his performance on the pandemic and for “destroying” the health-care system.
There are many stories of
UCP riding board members and loyal supporters — the kind who typically give the $4,000 maximum — now refusing to donate anything at all.
All this really matters both to the party and to Kenney.
They can dismiss weak opinion poll ratings (and they have those, too) when an election is still years away.
But a buck's a buck no matter when you look at it. Today's bank account is an early measure of how much cash the party will actually have when it comes time to fight a campaign.
It's already clear that if the fundraising trends continue, the NDP will have a huge advantage on voting day in early 2023.
Alberta opposition parties have hardly ever been able to collect more money than a reigning conservative government.
The NDP certainly never did it during their long decades in opposition to the Progressive Conservatives, before being elected in 2015.
Only Wildrose ever managed to outpoint the PCS between elections. And that was another conservative party.
But today's money problem is hardly a shock, given all the UCP tensions on public view.
A letter from UCP dissidents, now circulating for signatures, demands Kenney's immediate resignation, brutally calling him untrustworthy and unpopular.
This overlaps with the drive for 22 riding associations to unite in demanding an immediate leadership vote.
Seventeen UCP MLAS have signed an open letter opposing government COVID-19 restrictions.
Resentment persists over Kenney's demotion of MLAS and a minister for travelling over the year-end holiday.
Some feel the penalties were unfair, but MLAS who stayed home are still angry at them for hurting the government.
The party can take some comfort from the fact that it won in 2019 despite being outspent by the NDP.
The UCP spent $4.5 million in that campaign period. The NDS laid out $5.4 million (and ran a $1.7 million deficit).
Spending the most money doesn't always ensure victory. But it sure helps. Consistent funding shortages always call a premier's leadership into question.
The fundraising totals show a province almost entirely split between the two big opponents.
The Alberta Party raised only $43,900 in the first quarter. The Liberals managed just $31,700. There's no evidence that the New Democrats are in danger from these centrist parties.
To the right of the UCP, the recently formed Wildrose Independence Party got $32,200.
No risk to the UCP there. Kenney's job is to keep it that way.
He's already sending ministers to convince ridings to pass supportive measures. They will argue that disunity can cause splits that could help the NDP get elected again.
That's a powerful point. Very few conservatives will want yet another standoff of the Wildrose-pc variety.
But Kenney faces major problems, as many Albertans withdraw both their affections and their wallets.