Lottery's effect inconclusive, expert says

Difficult to evaluate impact on uptake with other factors in play, expert says

Alberta's COVID-19 vaccine lottery didn't lead to an increase in first-dose uptake, but it may have prevented an even greater decline in jabs, immunization data show.

In the week following the June 12 lottery announcement, an average of 10,209 Albertans received their first shot against COVID -19 — a 19 per cent decrease from the previous seven-day period.

But the drop was less significant than that seen in preceding weeks, including a 44 per cent decline in first-dose uptake for the week ending June 12, suggesting the lottery helped mitigate the decreasing demand.

It's difficult to evaluate whether Alberta's vaccine lottery meaningfully impacted uptake, said University of Calgary health policy expert Lorian Hardcastle. She said other initiatives to boost firstdose uptake, including community walk-in clinics and vaccine registrations for snowbirds, took place concurrent with the lottery.

“Governments are doing a multipronged approach to try to increase vaccines, so it's not clear if the lottery is the thing that helps,” Hardcastle said. “(There was) a pretty confident pronouncement that this would increase vaccination rates, but that evidentiary basis was dubious.”

Alberta Health did not provide comment on the topic by 6 p.m. Friday.

Earlier this week, Premier Jason Kenney said the lottery likely contributed to an increase in “two to three percentage points” for vaccines — an estimate that would represent as many as 114,000 first doses. Alberta has completed fewer than 100,000 first doses since the lottery was announced.

“We did see with the lottery, after it was announced a couple of weeks ago, we went from a decline in firstdose demand to an increase,” Kenney said.

Hardcastle contended that regardless of whether the lottery was effective, it presented several optical problems.

One was the appearance the lottery was only being implemented to give the province a boost across the finish line to its predetermined threshold of 70 per cent of eligible Albertans immunized, which would trigger the lifting of nearly all COVID-19 restrictions two weeks later, she said.

“The other concern is that, maybe they wouldn't have needed to do a lottery to get numbers up at the last minute ... if they had dealt with this issue more proactively and responsibly all along.”

Entries to Alberta's first lottery draw closed Thursday. The province had received more than 1.3 million entries, it reported Friday evening.

The first lottery draw will take place July 1, and will award one $1 million prize and numerous prizes related to the Calgary Stampede. Two additional $1-million draws for those who have been fully immunized will take place in August and September, with air travel prizes from Westjet and Air Canada also offered.

Alberta reached a vaccine milestone Friday after administering its four-millionth shot. In total, 2.71 million Albertans have received at least one dose of vaccine, and 1.31 million have both necessary shots. Among Albertans ages 12 and older, 71.3 per cent have at least one shot, and 34.3 per cent have received both doses.

A detailed breakdown of COVID-19 data was not available Friday due to “technical issues,” Alberta chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw said Friday on Twitter. She said the province logged an estimated 100 new cases of the virus from about 6,100 tests for a positivity rate of 1.7 per cent.

Hinshaw will address media Tuesday for her final scheduled press conference, after which she will only give updates as required.

Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi said Friday he continues to have concerns over the more contagious Delta variant, which originated in India.

Calgary city council will reconsider its mask bylaw July 5, four days after Alberta repeals its mandate.