Daily COVID-19 cases still low, but potential of infection on the rise

Transmission data causing concern there could be a spike in next few weeks

COVID-19'S transmission potential in Alberta is on the rise again after plummeting from the heights of the virus's third wave.

After the disease's R value — the rate of COVID-19 transmission from one person to another — fell to 0.75 provincewide in the week of June 21 to 27, that number rebounded to 0.84 up to July 11.

And in the Calgary zone, that number climbed to 0.88 from 0.73 with a margin of error as high as 1.03 — a number known as the confidence interval that's as high as 1.23 in Edmonton.

That's cause for some concern after the province dispensed with virtually all public health restrictions July 1, said Dr. Tehseen Ladha, an Edmonton pediatrician.

“Things have plateaued and those infection cases could go up,” said Ladha. “In the next few weeks we'll see where this tips, and a lot of us think this will be tipping up. ... A lot of people are expecting it to go up over one.”

Ladha noted the level of eligible Albertans fully vaccinated is about 56.5 per cent and that the pace of those who have received a single dose — 74.3 per cent — has slowed considerably.

“We're nowhere near a vaccination level that reaches herd immunity,” said Ladha.

Caution should still be exercised around children under 12 for whom there is no vaccine, she said.

To boost those immunization numbers, the province on Wednesday announced it was adding hunting licences, camping excursions and Kananaskis passes to its roster of vaccination lottery prizes.

“The Open for Summer Lottery has moved our vaccine numbers up and these new prizes should appeal to some folks who have not yet got around to being vaccinated,” said Premier Jason Kenney.

But Ladha said she's skeptical about the lottery's effectiveness, adding physicians are noting various barriers preventing many Albertans from being vaccinated, such as language, transportation, inability to get time off and patients' questions about the vaccine.

“If we can address those barriers and employ a strategic push to meet those people in their communities, I think we'd see a huge surge in immunizations,” she said.

Health officials have mounted targeted vaccination campaigns in specific communities.

The latest COVID-19 case numbers continue to be dramatically lower than at the height of the third wave, with just 46 new infections reported Wednesday, with a positivity rate of 0.67 per cent.

Active case numbers have continued to drop to 569, while one additional death has pushed the total toll to 2,311.

Alberta Health Services say no new intensive care unit or other acute-care resources have been added to prepare for a possible post-stampede COVID-19 surge.

“As has been the case throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we are able to quickly respond to changes in demand for areas such as testing, contact tracing and in-patient care,” AHS said in a statement.

“This includes the allocation of acute care and ICU spaces to ensure capacity is available if required.”