OPEC sees oil demand in '22 reaching pre-pandemic levels

OPEC forecast on Thursday that world oil demand would rise in 2022 to reach a level similar to before the pandemic, led by growth in the United States, China and India.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report that demand next year would rise by 3.4 per cent to 99.86 million barrels per day ( bpd), and would average more than 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022.

“Solid expectations exist for global economic growth in 2022,” OPEC said. “These include improved containment of COVID -19, particularly in emerging and developing countries, which are forecast to spur oil demand to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2022.”

The report reflects OPEC'S confidence that demand will recover robustly from the pandemic, allowing the group and its allies to further ease record supply curbs made in 2020. Some analysts have said world oil demand may have peaked in 2019. In the report, OPEC also maintained its prediction that demand would grow by 5.95 million bpd or 6.6 per cent in 2021.

OPEC forecast oil demand in China and India would exceed pre-pandemic levels next year. It said the United States would make the biggest contribution to 2022 demand growth, although U.S. oil use would stay just below 2019 levels.

World economic growth was expected to slow to 4.1 per cent next year from 5.5 per cent in 2021, still supported by government stimulus and with the outlook “depending primarily on COVID -19-related developments,” OPEC said.