Battle looming over retreat from oil
A monumental Alberta issue slipped into the mainstream Tuesday with barely a ripple.
The federal Liberals announced consultations for a “just transition” away from oil and other resources to a green economy.
By the end of this process there will be a national law that enables (forces?) transition for workers across sectors and regions, at the pace set by Ottawa.
Canadians are invited to email their thoughts. There will be virtual stakeholder sessions (invitation only) in August and September. Sometime in the fall, the Liberals will emit a report on “what we heard.” Then would begin the march to a law and implementation.
All this dovetails neatly with the federal election campaign widely expected in early autumn.
The goals are lifted bodily from the national NDP and Greens. The Liberals hope to gather all progressive forces under their banner on election day.
As a national project, Just Transition comes close to former Green Leader Elizabeth May's call for a wartime-style attack on climate change.
It's impossible to say what this will mean for the pace and detail of changes to the energy industry. Federal language is elusive. An entire discussion paper doesn't mention the word “oil” once.
But the focus is on people who are going to lose their employment in resource industries, or see it change radically.
“Workers in the natural resource sectors helped build this country,” said Natural Resources Minister Seamus O'regan.
“These same workers will build our low-carbon future. It is their skills, determination and ingenuity that will get us to net zero and ensure our continued prosperity. They won't be left behind — they will lead the way.”
That would be a fine thing, although it's hard to imagine Prime Minister Justin Trudeau letting oilpatch workers lead him anywhere.
The Liberals embarked on a transition project for coal workers in 2019. This new phase includes the whole economy, with heavy emphasis on resources, and especially oil and gas.
The reaction across the country was muted. The Liberals have made their goals so clear, perhaps, that the step to formalizing transition was hardly worth noting.
But Alberta Energy Minister Sonya Savage lit up like a prairie gas flare.
“The federal government's intention to hastily phase out Canada's world-class oil and gas industry is extremely harmful to the hundreds of thousands who directly and indirectly work in the sector, and will be detrimental to Canada's economic recovery.”
She said Alberta's industry
“is already at the forefront of innovation and a diversified energy future with emerging opportunities like hydrogen, helium, geothermal development and petrochemicals … we have invested billions of dollars in technologies that reduce — and in some cases eliminate — emissions, such as carbon capture, utilization and storage.
“These new opportunities clearly demonstrate that the industry has already been transforming to meet post-pandemic energy demand, with many producers having set ambitious net-zero emissions goals.
“None of this is possible without the hard work of our skilled oil and gas workers.”
Both sides here recognize the need for helping workers with the changes to come. The fight will be over details and control as much as goals.
Alberta's jurisdiction over natural resources, which once seemed written in stone, has been steadily eroded by court rulings and aggressive federal legislation.
On March 25, ruling in Ottawa's favour on carbon tax, the lead Supreme Court judge said climate change is a matter of pressing national concern that allows Ottawa to pass laws overriding provincial powers.
Savage says a lot of the transition consultation is pre-election rhetoric.
She notes that O'regan still sees a role for oil and gas. Ottawa's plan is “completely unrealistic” and doesn't reflect what's happening in the industry.
But still, it's clear who has the momentum in federal-provincial disputes. If Ottawa misuses its growing power in typically casual fashion, the transition may not look very just in Alberta.