OBAMA ENDORSES TRUDEAU.

Could sway some votes from NDP

Former U.S. president Barack Obama endorsed Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau Thursday, calling him an “effective leader and a strong voice for democratic values.”

Obama said in a Twitter post Thursday that he wishes his friend Trudeau “the best in Canada's upcoming election,” and that he is “proud of the work we did together.”

The high-profile tweet comes as the Liberals remain locked in a neckand-neck battle with the Conservatives in the polls, just days away from the vote, on Monday.

The former Democratic president's endorsement could help sway some progressive voters to cast their ballots for the Liberals instead of the NDP, given that Obama is a “progressive icon” who remains popular across Canada, said Daniel Béland, a professor of political science at Mcgill University.

“The NDP is a threat to the Liberals and the Liberals want the NDP to stay where it is or even decline in the polls, so they will want to frame this as a major endorsement that could sway progressives,” Béland said.

But it's unclear whether it will actually make a difference.

“Will this actually generate any significant shifts in the polls? You know, I'm a bit skeptical. I will have to look over the next few days,” he said, adding it “can't hurt” the Liberal chances.

“I think it favours the Liberals, probably to the annoyance of the NDP,” said University of Ottawa professor Errol Mendes.

To what extent depends on the amount of attention the endorsement gets in the news media, he said, adding “it will have an impact if it's played up a lot.”

Obama, for many Canadians, is still a major world figure, Mendes noted.

Obama voiced his support for Trudeau in the 2019 election. The endorsement from the first Black president of the U.S. came at a critical time for Trudeau, who was facing a scandal after old photos of him in blackface and brownface emerged during the campaign.

A campaign staffer told the National Post at the time that Obama's tweet “recharged the base” after the embarrassment of the blackface photos, providing reassurance that Trudeau was “not a racist.”

Because the context isn't the same in 2021, and because we're now further away from Obama's presidency, the endorsement this time around may have less impact, said Béland.

It could also have a negative effect, according to Mendes.

“On one level, it could backfire where people would say, we should not have a foreign person intervening in our election,” he said.

It could also have the side effect of boosting the People's Party of Canada, the conservative party started by former MP Maxime Bernier. Obama is the “antithesis of what they believe in. They seem to be very much following the Trump type of politics,” Mendes said.

Melissa Haussman, a professor of political science at Carleton University, pointed out the endorsement can only reach individuals who haven't yet voted.

Elections Canada said Wednesday an estimated 5.8 million Canadians have already cast their ballot in advanced polling. That's nearly a third of the total number of Canadians who voted in 2019.

She said that Obama's support is the “next best thing” to getting an endorsement from current U.S. President Joe Biden. “It's sort of Biden by proxy,” given that Biden served as Obama's vice-president, Haussman noted.

While she agreed the endorsement “absolutely” helps the Liberals with buzz and momentum, Haussman said it's hard to say how many votes it will actually deliver.

Mendes pointed out the Obama tweet is part of a pattern for the former president, who has publicly mused about other countries where the progressive vote was divided, allowing right-wing parties to gain a footing.

“Because he has this global perspective, I think he's probably seeing that is happening here in Canada, where if the progressive vote between the Liberals and the NDP is divided, it will allow not only the Conservatives to come through, but potentially even increase the voting for Maxime Bernier's party. So I think that's one of the reasons why I think he's intervened.”

The Obama endorsement comes the same week Trudeau held an event with former prime minister Jean Chrétien, and Conservative Leader Erin O'toole received an endorsement from former prime minister Brian Mulroney.