Winning streak shouldn't change anything for Flames GM Conroy
Time is now to go all-in on rebuild while aging assets have value,
Being a general manager is akin to building castles in the sand. Eventually, your creation is going to be swept away by the tide.
Roster attrition is the natural state of affairs for NHL decision-makers. Be it through injury, free agency, trades, budget constraints or aging, an NHL roster is always facing inevitable change. Contending teams aim to fight attrition as much as possible. Rebuilding teams depend on it to change their fortunes.
A transitional phase like the one the Calgary Flames are entering is marked by the acceleration of attrition as a result of the top of the roster aging out or fleeing for free agency and a prospect pipeline that isn't robust enough to assuage the loss. In Calgary's case, once they are traded (or flee as free agents), Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev will join a list of recent ex-flames that includes Nikita Zadorov, Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk.
By the end of the 2024-25 season, Andrew Mangiapane, Yegor Sharangovich and Andrei Kuzmenko will become unrestricted free agents. Mikael Backlund, Jacob Markstrom and Rasmus Andersson will be UFAS by the summer of 2026. Of the players listed, only Andersson (27) and Sharangovich (25) are younger than 28.
Nazem Kadri, the team's leading scorer, is 33. Their top two-way centre, Backlund, will turn 35 in March, as will their starting goalie (Markstrom) next January. Age and free agency are poised to decimate the top end of a roster that is on pace to miss the playoffs for the third time in four seasons.
In contrast, Calgary's prospect pipeline cannot possibly sustain the roster through this level of loss. You can count the number of youngsters knocking on the door to play meaningful minutes on one hand: Connor Zary, Martin Pospisil, Dustin Wolf, Jakob Pelletier and Matthew Coronato. Calgary's last three drafts will likely only yield one addition to the parent roster any time soon (Coronato). None of the team's kids profile as future superstars.
Retools occur when a GM needs to drastically restructure the supporting cast around a nucleus of star players. Rebuilds happen when the star players leave or erode, forcing the club to find new foundational pieces.
Brad Treliving's brazen work in the 2022 off-season was perhaps the most drastic form of retooling possible, a kind of hybrid tactic situated between a retool and a rebuild. He attempted to retain a core not by drafting and developing, but by transplanting a new core on the fly. The additions of Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau and Mackenzie Weegar following the Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk departures was a bold attempt to prop open a contention window that had seemingly slammed shut. That it did not work illustrates how difficult and risky a core transplant can be.
Nevertheless, there remains consternation in Calgary about what to call whatever it is Craig Conroy is orchestrating. The word “rebuild” is never officially uttered by the Flames' front office.
But the truth is it doesn't really matter what you call it. The reality of the situation will dictate the best course of action, not the attendant nomenclature.
Conroy is facing three stark factors as he marshals himself for the coming challenge — the quality of the roster construction (they are a bubble team), the pace of roster attrition (accelerating) and the net value of their key roster pieces (diminishing over time).
What this means is that the Flames are not good enough to sustain major losses to the top of their depth chart and remain competitive. Their roster is also likely going to erode faster than it can replenished. And the club's asset base is trending toward a deficit, not a surplus.
Of the three factors, Conroy has the most control over the organization's asset base as he positions himself to cash in on expiring contracts during the next two or three seasons. Roster quality and attrition are mostly baked in at this point, inexorable processes that will play out.
The Flames' sandcastle is listing, soon to be toppled. The time to begin building something anew is now.
For nearly two decades, Kent Wilson has written about NHL team-building, advanced stats and player evaluation. His work has appeared on The Score, Yahoo Sports, Flamesnation, Hockey Prospectus, Matchsticks & Gasoline and The Athletic.