UCP should be prepared for a battle with Nenshi
Former mayor remarkably durable, Evan Menzies writes.
“Bring it on” was the message sent by Premier Danielle Smith's team in Postmedia columnist Rick Bell's column, after former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi's much-anticipated entry into the NDP leadership race reached its fever pitch.
If you're a UCP strategist, you have reasons to be confident if we turn back the clock to Nenshi's last term as mayor, but they'll need to be cautious.
In the summer of 2019, according to
Thinkhq pollster Marc Henry, Nenshi's approval rating collapsed significantly to fewer than four in 10 Calgary voters, cut nearly in half from its heights after the 2013 floods.
Digging deeper into the numbers doesn't invoke confidence, either. Those over the age of 55, a high turnout demographic, had a 72 per cent negative view of him. Dissatisfaction was highest in the suburbs. His base strength was in the inner city and northeast, a place where the NDP already flexes its muscle.
Big deal, Nenshi proponents may argue. That was a snapshot in time and he proved himself time and again as a formidable politician when cornered and underestimated.
It's a good point, but it's critical to consider the challenge of being an opposition leader in Alberta.
While we have trouble holding onto premiers for more than three or four years at a time, opposition leaders hit the dust even faster, with the notable standout being current NDP Leader Rachel Notley.
Opposition politics is hard. It requires constant coalition building with very little in the way of carrots to offer your MLAS. You never get credit for policy ideas but you do get criticized for being too negative. And let there be no mistake, there will be many longtime stalwarts within the NDP who will see a Nenshi victory as a party takeover by old Alberta Party activists who have always seen the NDP brand as too toxic for mainstream Alberta.
The NDP has a solid fortress of orange in battleground Calgary and the UCP will need to be on the offensive in the next election.
Will Nenshi have the endurance and patience to tolerate three years on the opposition benches grinding it out, taking over the party's operations, ensuring nominations for the next electoral cycle have his fingerprints on it? It will be no cakewalk.
That doesn't mean he isn't a formidable opponent. I offer my friends in the UCP a word of caution about underestimating him. As mayor, Nenshi remained remarkably durable. He effectively maintained his brand as “purple” and a “centrist.” Scratch the back of a federal and a provincial conservative voter in a suburban riding such as Calgary Peigan or Calgary North West, and it's likely a large percentage have a positive view of his time as mayor.
His followers are loyal, devoted and will be energized by his presence on the provincial stage. He's a battler and seems to thrive whenever he's behind the 8-ball. On top of that, the NDP'S march from the inner city outward in the last election was a clear message to the UCP: you can't take our vote for granted. The NDP has a solid fortress of orange in battleground Calgary and the UCP will need to be on the offensive in the next election to win it back.
That job would be even harder against a former mayor whose biggest strength is in the inner city and vote-rich areas of the northeast.
This all may be moot. Nenshi's delayed entry may have been a costly error with valuable time to sell memberships lost. NDP members will ultimately have their say in June, but the time for conservatives to hug their comfort blanket of a united conservative movement being infallible in provincial politics is over. Nenshi, or whoever the next leader is, will have a united and determined progressive movement at its backing.
So bring it on indeed, but conservatives will need to be at their very best to ensure Danielle Smith can win that coveted second term as premier in 2027.