Stronger Calgary market forecast for ’19 & ’20
In its 2018 Housing Market Outlook, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) expects home sales and new home starts in markets across Canada to moderate in 2019 and 2020.
“Our key takeaway from this year’s outlook is moderation in Canada’s housing markets for 2019 into 2020,” says Bob Dugan, chief economist with CMHC. “Housing starts are expected to decline from the higher levels we’ve seen recently. We expect resales in 2019 and 2020 to remain below recent peaks while prices should reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and populations growth.”
On the national level, CMHC’s outlook for 2019 is for new home starts to edge downward to a range between 193,700 and 204,500, with lowers starts in both the single-family and multifamily home segments. MLS sales are expected to be between 478,400 and 497,400 units annually while the national average price should be between $501,400 and $521,600.
CMHC reports numbers in ranges, which takes into account unforeseen factors that can influence housing markets.
CMHC expects housing markets to show increased activity.
“Buyers’ market conditions in both Alberta and Saskatchewan should gradually shift to a balanced market with gradual improvement in economic and demographic fundamentals. Balanced market conditions in Manitoba are expected to continue,” says CMHC’s report.
Looking at Calgary, CMHC says, “Various factors will push and pull the demand for housing in Calgary in 2019 and 2020. Calgary’s economy will experience stronger growth in population and employment. This will help support demand and lift sales in 2019 and 2020. However, the average MLS price will continue to face downward pressure but is expected to stabilize in 2019 and modestly rise in 2020.”
For more in-depth information, see the November 17 edition of the Calgary Sun’s New Homes Magazine.