INTERVIEW
The authors of Empty Planet discuss the causes and implications of global population decline
Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson on global population decline, the topic of their book Empty Planet
WWhat will the world be like at the end of the 21st century? UN statisticians warn we’re headed for a Malthusian nightmare where too many humans compete for too few resources. But in their provocative new book, Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline, pollster Darrell Bricker and journalist John Ibbitson argue the opposite is true: that falling birthrates portend a future in which Earth’s population is older, smaller and more urban — and in which Canada is uniquely positioned.
On the causes of population decline
JI: I thought population decline was happening because society was urbanizing, but the bigger reason is that more women became educated and demanded and acquired control over their own bodies. When that happened, women decided to stop having so many kids. On economic impacts of population decline JI: There are about two dozen countries, including Japan and Spain, whose populations are already declining, and it’s very hard for them to sustain their economies. They can take care of labour shortages through automation, and they can offset higher healthcare costs in an aging society by cutting back on primary education and daycare because there are fewer kids. But even if they account for all of that, they’re not going to have enough consumers to keep their economies going.
On what Canada will look like in 2067
DB: It’s going to be a much older country. Right now, most of the world’s population growth is due to people living longer. Today, the average Canadian lives to 81; if you have a child next year, it’s likely they will live to 100.
JI: And Canada will be unique because it will continue to have a robust immigration policy. I thought the thesis of the book was going to be, “Everybody needs to accept immigration or their populations will decline.” By the end, we’d come to the conclusion that for many countries, that’s just not possible — the pull of nationalism is so intense, it’s difficult to see these countries bringing in enough immigrants to sustain their populations without social tensions becoming intolerable. There’s a sadness in that, but it also means that future generations are going to live in a world where Canada has a much larger share of the globe’s population.
On potential solutions
DB: We looked at how some countries have tried to encourage people to have more kids by supporting paternal leave, for instance, or striving for a better work-life balance. Some of these measures have had a marginal impact on fertility, but it usually doesn’t last and the impact tends to be relatively small. So apart from immigration, there really isn’t another solution — unless we grow people in pods.