Liberal promises can’t all be kept

Justin Trudeau’s good ship of election promises is headed for the rocks. First it was the inability to deliver 25,000 Syrian refugees by years’ end. Now, the unexpected string of multibillion-dollar-budget deficits his own government predicted last week should convince him a fast change in course is in order.

Judging by the numbers released by Finance Minister Bill Morneau, it will be impossible for this government to keep its word on running manageable deficits then balancing the books while honouring all of its new spending commitments.

To begin, the Liberals must deal with this inconvenient truth. The $2.4-billion federal budget surplus for 2015-16 projected in April when the Conservatives were in power has vanished into thin air. In its place will be a $3-billion federal deficit.

As for the $1.7 surplus predicted for 2016-17 it’s toast, too. That year’s shortfall is shaping up to be a $4-billion nightmare. And these are the deficits Trudeau has inherited. They do not take into account his plans for new spending.

This creates more than a one-day headache for Trudeau. It demolishes a big part of his platform which was based on the assumption that the Liberals would take office with the budget in balance. During the campaign, Trudeau branded the Liberals as different from their main opponents by promising to run annual $10-billion deficits in the next two years and a $5.7-billion shortfall in the third year before prudently balancing the budget in year four, in time for the next election.

Trudeau sold this plan as a necessary and stimulating tonic to Canada’s sluggish economy. Additional infrastructure worth $5-billion a year was offered as the biggest ingredient in this national pick-me-up. But the Liberals would sprinkle a lot more cash goodies across the land - $185 million more for arts and culture; $275 million more for First Nations and $325 million more for veterans. And that’s just for next year. Even more new spending is set to follow.

The trouble for Trudeau is he can’t make good on all this new spending while keeping a lid on his deficits. He can abide by one promise or the other. He can’t do both. His government’s own numbers declare the promises are incompatible. And another Trudeau promise — to cut income taxes for many middle class Canadians — severely limits his options for finding new revenues.

It’s obvious why the prime minister wants to be seen as a confirmed promise keeper. He was elected to implement a specific agenda. He wants to burnish his political reputation by keeping his word and showing how strongly he believes in the party line.

But if Trudeau wants to steer clear of unsustainable debt and structural deficits — and he should — he’ll chart a course different from what the Liberal campaign set out. He will make good on his pledge for infrastructure spending to put Canadians to work building things Canadians need. He will keep his promise for limited deficits then balanced books.

But he will drastically curtail his other plans for new spending. Promises, unlike people, are not created equal. And sometimes, for the common good, some promises should be broken.