JOHNSON: Trudeau’s time of reckoning?
Early polls projecting a very close race
Is it just me or is this current federal election campaign beginning to look eerily reminiscent of the recently concluded Nova Scotian provincial election? An election that witnessed an incumbent Liberal premier and government humbled at the polls. Could Justin Trudeau and his Liberal party be looking at a similar nightmare scenario for themselves come Sept. 20, election day?
Recent public opinion polls and nightly voter tracking surveys have shown that this federal election has become a close race between the Liberals and the Conservatives, with both parties gaining the support of some one-third of survey respondents nationally. Support for the New Democrats hovers around the 20 per cent range, while the Bloc Quebecois is doing well in Quebec and the Greens are a factor in only two ridings on Vancouver Island.
LIBERALS HAVE TO BE WORRIED
If such polling results were replicated in actual vote totals on election night, we would be looking at another Liberal minority government or, if Erin O’Toole continues to impress more Canadians with his moderate approach to most campaign issues, we could be looking at a Conservative minority government. And if either of these scenarios were to be realized, Jagmeet Singh and the NDP would hold the balance of power in a hung parliament.
The polling data that leads to these types of albeit tentative conclusions has to have Liberals worried. What was supposed to be an election campaign where Trudeau and his Team Liberal would soar to a majority government on account of their deft handling of the pandemic, their promises to spend hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years on everything from health care to day care to pharmacare to affordable housing to a greener economy to reconciliation with Indigenous First Nations, has turned into a campaign where the Liberals are faltering.
O’TOOLE RUNNING DEFT CAMPAIGN
And part of this inability to strongly connect with an electorally significant proportion of Canadians is the deft campaign being led by Erin O’Toole, who has adopted the playbook of Tim Houston’s strategy for winning the premiership of Nova Scotia: be moderate, be reasonable, be inclusive, be willing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on a host of social, economic and environmental needs of Canadians, be critical of the often weak leadership style and ethical behaviour of the current prime minister, and above all, distance yourself from the divisive leadership of former prime minister Stephen Harper.
This combination of a less than stellar Liberal campaign, so far, and a far better than expected Conservative campaign has these two parties running neck and neck in the polls. And at the regional level, the Liberals now only post strong leads in Quebec and here in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, they run first with around 34 per cent support of survey respondents, with the Bloc Quebecois trailing in second place with 26 per cent support. And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead with 41 per cent support, with the Conservatives in second with 29 per cent, and the NDP in third at 21 per cent.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives lead in British Columbia, 34 per cent to the Liberals 27 per cent support levels, they dominate all other parties on the prairies, and they are now in a dead heat with the Liberals in vote and seat-rich Ontario.
CONSERVATIVES GAINING IN CAPE BRETON
If you like elections, we are in for a thrilling second half of this campaign.
And what of the two Cape Breton seats? In 2019, the Liberals won both Sydney-Victoria and Cape Breton-Canso, but with relatively narrow margins of victory. Now, the polling and electoral projection website 338Canada.com is reporting that both of these ridings are in play for the Liberals and Conservatives, with Sydney-Victoria leaning Conservative while Cape Breton-Canso is listed as a “toss-up” between these two parties.
Now we know why Erin O’Toole visited Cape Breton last week. And if Justin Trudeau spins by sometime over the next three weeks we’ll know these races are still hotly contested. Stay tuned.