New Brunswick 'sees no need' to release COVID19 modelling, despite predicted surge

The New Brunswick gov‐ ernment refuses to re‐ lease its latest COVID-19 projections.

But one immunologist pre‐ dicts "a bigger surge than we've ever seen."

And a behavioural scientist warns the lack of public data is creating "a false sense of se‐ curity."

Department of Health offi‐ cials have repeatedly said in recent months they antici‐ pate an increase in "COVID ac‐ tivity" later this fall and into the winter.

But when asked what the province's modelling shows for deaths, hospitalizations and cases, Dr. Yves Léger, the province's acting chief medical officer of health, replied, "We don't have specific modelling based on that."

"At this point in time, you know, I think the important message really is that we ex‐ pect to see increases, and that's what people need to plan for.

"So it's important for the public to remain aware and up-to-date on the COVID ac‐ tivity that's happening."

And up-to-date on vac‐ cines and boosters, he said.

Asked to clarify whether the province is still doing modelling, and if not, why not, Léger said, "it provides an idea … but it's not always ac‐ curate."

"We certainly don't want people to put too much em‐ phasis on that."

In a followup email, De‐ partment of Health spokesperson Adam Bowie said the department is "con‐ tinuously monitoring COVID19 activity" in the province to assess the risks, "and part of that oversight involves mod‐ elling."

"Should a specific trend or point of concern emerge through these modelling ex‐ ercises, the department would share that information publicly."

Bowie did not respond to a request for examples of what might represent "a spe‐ cific trend or point of con‐ cern."

Nor did he respond to questions about what period the latest modelling covers.

At this time, the depart‐ ment sees no need to share this information. - Adam Bowie, Department of Health

Modelling is not typically released publicly, Bowie said, "because the numbers fluctu‐ ate daily, and are dependent on the information available at any given time."

"Few, if any" provinces or territories regularly release COVID-19 modelling, "as that information alone has the po‐ tential to be misinterpreted and may not present an accu‐ rate depiction of the current situation," he said.

"At this time, the depart‐ ment sees no need to share this information. If that changes, we'll be sure to re‐ lease this information pub‐ licly, and to contact you, and other members of the media, for your awareness."

The department has previ‐ ously released some model‐ ling data when "significant trends" have been identified and supported by other evi‐ dence, particularly during the early days of the pandemic in 2020 and earlier this year at the beginning of the Omicron wave, he added.

Many have lost fear of Omicron

Rod Russell, a professor of virology and immunology at Memorial University in New‐ foundland and Labrador, said he isn't surprised the govern‐ ment is reluctant to release modelling data, "because it could turn out to be very wrong."

Modelling is difficult, he said, because there are so many variables involved. You can model based on previous waves, similar-size popula‐ tions, or population densities.

"But at the end of the day … this is a virus that loves to change," he said. "And then we have human behaviour as well." As an example, he cited whether people choose to mask.

Having accurate COVID-19 case rates to use in the mod‐ elling is also a major challenge now, since many people are testing at home and not re‐ porting, or not testing at all, said Russell.

In addition, there's the added unknown of how well the new COVID-19 biva‐ lent vaccine boosters will re‐ duce transmission and spread.

Exposure rates will be up though, said Russell, point‐ ing to decreased masking be‐ cause of lifted restrictions and increased socializing because of changes in public opinion.

"After so many people got Omicron, a lot of people stopped fearing it," because it was mild in many cases, he said.

"A lot of people think the pandemic is over, or at least it's over for them. They've de‐ clared that they're 'done with it.'"

There are still, however, people who are vulnerable to COVID-19, said Russell.

Given that, "I think we kind of have to expect a bigger surge than we've ever seen yet," he said, though perhaps not as deadly.

"If they survived their first infection, then you know there's a good chance they'll survive a second one."

Few still taking protec‐ tive measures

Simon Bacon, a professor of behavioural medicine at Concordia University in Mon‐ treal, said he'd be surprised if New Brunswick — or any gov‐ ernment — is putting in the required time, money and ef‐ fort to do good modelling now.

"I'm not 100 per cent sure that they're interested in ac‐ tually doing anything proac‐ tive in the COVID situation, because they feel, I think most politicians. — not necessarily the Public Health people, but most politicians, I think — at this point in time are just kind of like, 'No one cares.'"

Bacon contends the "con‐ tradiction" of governments hasn't helped.

On the one hand, they're lifting protective COVID-19 measures. But on the other, they're telling people it's im‐ portant they get vaccinated and boosted.

"And the population is sort of standing there, scratching their head saying, 'Well, why? … You're not giving me any indication as to the im‐ portance of this, or the need for this.

"'In fact, you're doing ex‐ actly the opposite. Your ac‐ tions are saying that every‐ thing is completely fine.'"

As it stands, Bacon be‐ lieves the majority of people feel COVID is not something to worry about, while a rapid‐ ly decreasing minority are still taking good measures to pro‐ tect themselves and others.

"There's probably a false sense of security around where we're at with the COVID pandemic," he said.

In Quebec, he said, some 2,000 people are in hospital with COVID, and between five and 20 COVID deaths occur every day. "In a bad week, that's like 140 people. That's like an airplane going down, of deaths due to COVID."

New variant could mean 'trouble'

He said he understands that modelling a complex, evolving pandemic is difficult and will always involve a cer‐ tain degree of error, but with‐ holding data is not the an‐ swer.

"All that does is drive mis‐ trust and drive this further apathy toward what may be key things that may have to be reintroduced down the line or, you know, people un‐ derstanding risk and minimiz‐ ing risk, and naturally just dri‐ ving down infections by tak‐ ing the precautions they should."

Bacon would like to see modelling of risks to individu‐ als in various situations. If a person is a certain age and has certain characteristics, for example, what is their risk if they work in a bar or restau‐ rant versus an office? How does their risk change if they wear a mask? How does their risk change if they have one booster dose, or two or three?

"Governments have really done this big push about indi‐ vidual responsibility, and pushing everything to the in‐ dividual to make the deci‐ sions that they want to take," said Bacon.

"But they've not really armed them with the infor‐ mation to know when they should be doing it, and what kind of impact it has on them personally, or the people around them."

Without information to understand risk, people are vulnerable in high-risk situa‐ tions that they may not un‐ derstand as being high-risk situations, he said.

The other big concern with "this sense of 'everything's fine,'" said Bacon, is if a new variant as severe as Delta and as transmissible as Omicron emerges, "we could be really in trouble."

"What will be the appetite of governments to react to that, to a populace that they're disenfranchised, that doesn't think this is much of a problem, and may need to reintroduce measures that … are going to be very unpop‐ ular because of all the things that the governments have said about not needing any of these things anymore?"