Ron vs. Don: Why DeSantis may be able to defeat the Trump juggernaut
The technical issues that plagued the launch of Ron DeSantis's 2024 Republican presidential bid on Twitter were certainly a poor start to kick off his national campaign, but there are far more pressing chal‐ lenges facing the Florida governor.
Most significantly, while polls suggest DeSantis is the second most popular pick among Republicans, he has officially entered the race down more than 30 points from the front-runner in the RealClearPolitics national av‐ erage polls: former presi‐ dent Donald Trump.
After his big re-election months ago, DeSantis has sputtered along, his poll num‐ bers cratering as he faces off against a challenger who has a hard-core base of sup‐ port that no other candidate can match.
With Trump mounting such a significant lead, does DeSantis even stand a chance of catching up?
"Primaries are volatile things. Candidates rise and fall because voters don't pay that much attention early in the process," said Danny Hayes, a political science pro‐ fessor at George Washington University. "If anybody is writ‐ ing off DeSantis right now, they're probably not looking clearly at the situation."
"Beating Trump, of course, will be difficult. But there's a lot that can happen between now and the Iowa caucuses." Name recognition Despite the poll gap with Trump, it's certainly not all bad news for the Florida gov‐ ernor. Trump's ongoing legal woes could be a potential boon for the DeSantis cam‐ paign. This month, Trump was found liable of sexual abuse and defama‐ tion of magazine writer E. Jean Carroll in the 1990s.
This week, a court date for his criminal trial in Manhat‐ tan relating to hush money payments to women who al‐ leged extramarital affairs was set for March 2024, right in the heart of primary sea‐ son.
As well, Trump may al‐ so face charges over his han‐ dling of classified documents and his actions regarding the 2020 election.
And DeSantis does have some political advantages that could give him a legiti‐ mate shot at winning, political experts say, advantages which include name recogni‐ tion.
"The hardest thing to do when you're running for pres‐ ident is to get famous," said Chris Stirewalt, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise In‐ stitute and former political editor of Fox News Channel. "To reach the persuadable voter, you need for them first to know who you are."
Someone like South Caroli‐ na Senator Tim Scott, who just entered the race with over $20 million but still polls in single digits, will have to spend that money on boost‐ ing his name recognition, Stirewalt said.
"Ron DeSantis does not have to do that," he said."And that has extraordinary bene‐ fits, as Donald Trump proved when he leveraged television celebrity into the Republican nomination and the presiden‐
cy."
A record of winning DeSantis has become a na‐ tional figure in the U.S., in part because of his large margin of victory in the 2022 midterms.
But he also attracted at‐ tention for his antiCOVID mandates, along with other controversial poli‐ cies. Those have included the legislation nicknamed "Don't Say Gay" that prohibited teaching gender identity to young children in school, his fights against what he calls "wokeism" and his ongo‐ ing battle with Walt Disney Co.
Although some of those policies have drawn criticism from liberals, many have been welcomed by Republicans, boosting his popularity among the party faithful.
His re-election in Florida al‐ so has been in contrast to Trump, who lost the general election in 2020, and Trumpbacked candidates, many who went down to defeat in the midterms.
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"He has a record of win‐ ning races, particularly his reelection race, which is the kind of thing that will speak well to Republican primary voters who are hungry for vic‐ tory," said Republican strate‐ gist Whit Ayres.
Another big advantage for DeSantis is that he's been able to raise a lot of money, said Republican strategist Michael DuHaime.
"As the incumbent gover‐ nor of Florida, he has raised a fortune," DuHaime said in an email.
Also, "he is a fresh face, three decades younger than Trump."
On the other hand
Still, some political ob‐ servers say DeSantis suffers from an image problem, that he's prickly, and unlike Trump, is not comfortable with crowds, which could be a more significant liability in a nationwide campaign trying to reach a broader audience.
His support also seemed to crater among some Repub‐ licans when he said Russia's war against Ukraine was a "territorial dispute," and im‐ posed tougher restrictions on abortion in his state. Mean‐ while, his ongoing fight with Disney may have alienated some in the party who see his measures as anti-business.
Ayres said he believes De‐ Santis has been too focussed on trying to win over support from about a third of the Re‐ publican party, the "always Trump" voters.
"They're not going to vote for anybody else," Ayres said.
Instead, he suggested De‐ Santis should be targeting the "Maybe Trump" voter, those who have voted for him in the past, but perhaps are looking to leave all Trump's politi‐ cal baggage behind and find another candidate.
"They're skeptical that [Trump] could win. And so De‐ Santis has to present a win‐ ner's persona, look like the kind of guy who could be a successful presidential candi‐ date and win an election."
Stirewalt said DeSantis has succeeded to this point by be‐ ing a blunt instrument, a po‐ litical bulldozer.
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"Unfortunate for him, those are not the skills that are required once you are in the game," he said.
"What DeSantis has to do is pivot ... use the backboard of people's expectations of him as a blunt, culture war‐ rior and then do some things that surprise and make inter‐ ested voters who at this point are either down on him or have become skeptical."
DuHaime said DeSantis will need to be more aggressive to beat Trump.
"To this point, DeSantis only makes oblique passive aggressive criticisms at Trump because he doesn't want to offend Trump's voters," he said. "That won't cut it.
"DeSantis has a chance. Trump is the favourite, but everyone al‐ ready knows him. All eyes will now be on DeSantis to see how he performs. That's both a great opportunity and could lead to either a jump in the polls or to disappointment."