Will Monday's provincial election put Alberta on a 'continued collision' course with Ottawa?
The conclusion of the Al‐ berta provincial election on Monday will herald yet another stage in the feder‐ al-provincial relationship, often characterized in re‐ cent years by either tense co-operation or outright opposition.
Where political analysts in Alberta often talk about the province's three electoral "re‐ gions" — Edmonton, Calgary and rural areas — Ottawa has also been a point of focus throughout the campaign.
Opposition to the federal government is a "baseline" for both of Alberta's major par‐ ties, Corey Hogan, a political commentator and strategist, said in an interview on CBC's The House that aired Saturday.
"Certainly [NDP Leader] Rachel Notley has been more measured in her respons‐ es, but nobody's going to say during this election, in this province, 'I intend to be a nice, collaborative partner with Justin Trudeau's federal government,'" Hogan said.
Danielle Smith, who leads the United Conservative Par‐ ty, has sought to turn anti-Ot‐ tawa sentiment to her advan‐ tage throughout the cam‐ paign, looking to tie Notley, Trudeau and federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh togeth‐ er in the minds of voters. Not‐ ley meanwhile has looked to distance herself from her fed‐ eral counterparts.
The desire to be seen as the more moderate option was reflected in comments from New Democrat candi‐ date Diana Batten, speaking on The House.
"We are not the NDP of other days, and the Conserva‐ tives are not the Conserva‐ tives of other days, right? When I think about the Alber‐ ta NDP, we are not far left. We are almost centrist," Batten said.
Beyond political position‐ ing, Alberta's relationship with Ottawa has also been a key policy question for both the NDP and the UCP, with signifi‐ cant consequences depend‐ ing on Monday's election re‐ sults.
If the UCP were to retain control of the legislature, said Lisa Young, a political science professor at the University of Calgary, it would likely focus on issues surrounding oil and gas, rather than such con‐ cerns as equalization pay‐ ments.
"I think it's going to be all about greenhouse gas emis‐ sions, climate legislation and Alberta and Saskatchewan's ability to develop natural re‐ sources. That's going to be the constitutional conversa‐ tion, and I think it's going to be highly confrontational," Young said.
Asked about the relation‐ ship with Ottawa during an event this week, Smith pivot‐ ed straight to energy.
"I would say that one of the things we needed to do is that we needed to send a clear message to Ottawa that they have to respect our juris‐ diction — and I think they are beginning to understand that, that they can't just waltz in and try to dictate to us how to manage our resources and how to to manage our power grid," she said.
Leaders say they will stand up for Alberta
Notley, meanwhile, said at a separate event this week that she has a record of standing up to the federal government while still getting results.
"For all their hot air on this issue over the last many years, neither the [Progres‐ sive Conservatives] nor the UCP can point to a single pipeline to tidewater under their leadership," she said, re‐ ferring to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project.
Young said New Democ‐ rats would be unlikely to en‐ gage on what have been called the UCP's "firewall" poli‐ cies — including the creation of a provincial police force or a separate Alberta pension plan.
Included in — and poten‐ tially enabling — some of those proposed policies is the Sovereignty Act, passed by Smith late last year. The con‐ troversial piece of legislation represents a challenge to fed‐ eral power in the province, theoretically allowing Alber‐ ta to ignore federal laws.
"Hopefully it's a piece of legislation that we don't have to use," said Rebecca Schulz, a UCP candidate who has served in the provincial cabi‐ net since 2019.
"We've seen our leader, Danielle Smith, working very collaboratively with the feder‐ al government when it comes to things like child care, health care. But there are areas where we disagree. We will al‐ ways put Albertans, our liveli‐ hoods, our first."
In an interview on Rose‐ mary Barton Live airing Sun‐ day, Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek emphasized that the approach on issues such as environmental policy from here on should be a co-opera‐ tive one.
"So if the Sovereignty Act was intended to send a mes‐ sage, it has. Now we have to work in partnership and fix whatever solution the federal government wants to bring in to actually work for everyone.
Political commentator Hogan said another Smith government would yield the potential for some "strange things" to happen in Alberta and a "continued collision" with Ottawa.
"Watch out, because elec‐ tions have consequences, and those consequences could be significant for Confederation." opportunities