Why Italy's far-right leader Giorgia Meloni is sure to get a warm reception in Canada

This weekend, Canada will play host to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is widely regarded as that country's most rightwing leader since the fas‐ cist dictator Benito Mus‐ solini. But don't expect that detail to come up.

Meloni will be in Toronto this Saturday for a meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and it is expected to be a cordial one. Meloni's visit, reads a news release from the Prime Minister's Of‐ fice, will build on the "close relationship" Canada has with Italy, a steadfast ally in "defending democracy around the world."

The statement is a far cry from the public criticism Trudeau lobbed at Meloni at a meeting of the G7 last year. There, he voiced "concern" about the Italian prime min‐ ister's positions on 2SLGBTQ+ rights, which in‐ cluded plans to revoke parental rights for gay cou‐ ples with children.

But a lot can change in a year. Since last May, experts say Meloni has deftly per‐ formed a delicate balancing act, advancing centrist posi‐ tions on the international stage while appeasing a farright base at home. In the process, she has become a key power player in Europe amid a wider surge in rightwing sentiment across the continent.

"I expect Trudeau to be much more gentle with Mel‐ oni this time around," said Amy Verdun, director of the University of Victoria's Euro‐ pean studies program, in an email. "There is a more rightwing wind blowing in Eu‐ rope…. On the whole we do not know where all this is going. But for people on the left, it is a worrying trend."

Growing influence

Before coming to power, Mel‐ oni was known for her fiery speeches against "globalist" institutions such as the Euro‐ pean Union. But since be‐ coming premier, she has been positioning herself as a powerful player at the Euro‐ pean Parliament.

As leader of a large rightwing bloc, Meloni's tough talk on immigration has increas‐ ingly dictated the direction of EU policy. She was instru‐ mental in the development of its new migration plan, which will increase reloca‐ tions and refusals, and has built a close relationship with European Commission Presi‐ dent Ursula Von Der Leyen.

"They have helped each other many times, support‐ ing each other politically," said Teresa Coratella, a pro‐ gram manager for the Euro‐ pean Council on Foreign Re‐ lations in Rome.

With upcoming European elections expected to hand a quarter of seats to far-right parties like Meloni's, Von Der Leyen has been actively courting Meloni's approval, making frequent visits to Italy and statements in favour of her harsh policies on migra‐ tion.

"Meloni played her cards on the European tables very well," said Lorenzo Castellani, a political analyst at the LUISS Guido Carli university in Rome. "She will be one of the largest … players in the next election."

Intercontinental ambi‐ tions

Now, Meloni's ambitions have extended across the Mediterranean, with a new investment plan that would transfer billions in cash to African countries. The strategy is one of the topics that is expected to be under discussion Saturday.

Though the PMO's state‐ ment says the strategy could help "promote peace, devel‐ opment, and prosperity across the continent," it is widely understood to be aimed primarily at curbing immigration flows from North Africa.

"This plan might create some sort of exchange," said Castellani. "You can use this cash for drilling oil or build‐ ing schools and bridges, but the underlying motivation is first and foremost to stop il‐ legal immigration - or at least to limit it."

The plan has already drawn criticism for proposing large cash transfers to unsta‐ ble regimes with poor human rights records, in exchange for implicit promises to pre‐ vent refugees from getting out.

And while Meloni's migra‐ tion strategy has earned the support of European politi‐ cians fearing a far-right surge at home, it has appalled hu‐ man rights organizations, which have decried policies that offshore immigration processing to Albania, fund Libyan warships that illegally push back refugees, and criminalize the rescue of drowning migrants at sea.

'Draconian' policies at home

Meanwhile, since Trudeau voiced concern last year, Mel‐ oni has only accelerated the erosion of 2SLGBTQ+ rights in Italy. Last summer, she outlawed international surro‐ gacy, and carried through on threats to revoke the legal rights of dozens of gay par‐ ents.

Her government has earned rare rebukes for its harsh policing of protests, passed "draconian" new law‐ stargeted at youth crime and spurred controversy by clear‐ ing critics from cultural insti‐ tutions like the public broad‐ caster.

More recently, she's raised alarm by proposing constitu‐ tional reforms that critics say parallel those enacted by Mussolini in the 1920s, which would likely hand sweeping new powers to her office.

And while analysts admit she's been successful in shaking her party's fascist as‐ sociations internationally, she is still routinely embar‐ rassed in Italy by members of her own party attending neofascist rallies - events which she often avoids condemn‐ ing.

"It's like she has a double face," said Coratella. Interna‐ tionally, she has been en‐ couraged to moderate her positions - but at home, she faces the opposite pressure: a fractious coalition of farright politicians she must ap‐ pease to survive until the end of her mandate.

Shifting landscape

But analysts say little of this is likely to factor into Trudeau's discussion with Meloni Saturday. His highprofile critique last year was "mostly for a Canadian audi‐ ence," according to Ruben Zaiotti, a professor of politi‐ cal science at Dalhousie Uni‐ versity in Halifax.

"Trudeau … did what he had to do last year at the G7," Zaiotti said. "The [Mel‐ oni] government was new, so it wasn't yet clear if [it] would be playing by the same tune as the rest of the G7. But since then, she's done exactly that."

With ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, maintain‐ ing unity in groups like NATO, the G7 and the EU may sim‐ ply be more important now than policing the domestic politics of foreign leaders, an‐ alysts say. The bulk of the meeting is expected to focus on priorities like aid to Ukraine and support for Is‐ rael, two files where Meloni has remained in lockstep with her more mainstream allies.

"On the international lev‐ el, the issues today are Ukraine, Russian aggression, Israel-Gaza," said Zaiotti. "There's a lot of overlap be‐ tween what she wants and what Trudeau wants."

With the prospect of an‐ other right-wing leader occu‐ pying the White House next year, Canada may also not

have the luxury of choice when it comes to its allies.

"I'm not sure that Justin

Trudeau's foreign policy has been as successful as he wants," said Sir Graham Wat‐ son, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and a former member of the Euro‐ pean Parliament. "Maybe he is interested in closer rela‐ tions with Europe…. Relations between Canada and Italy could perhaps be strength‐ ened."

"Even if [its] European al‐ lies might not be of the same political colour," said Verdun, "it is in Canada's interest, at the moment, to be diversify‐ ing its relationships."