The GOP race is over. The question after Haley drops out: Will her voters move to Trump?
The evidence is now ir‐ refutable for what's seemed obvious for weeks: Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee this fall in a presidential re‐ match against Joe Biden.
Trump's remaining chal‐ lenger dropped out of the race the day after a lopsided string of Super Tuesday re‐ sults gave him an insur‐ mountable lead in clinching the party nomination.
Nikki Haley pointedly re‐ frained from offering a fullthroated endorsement, al‐ though she conceded Trump will be the nominee and wished him well.
She said it's up to Trump to earn her supporters' votes and added: "This is now his time for choosing."
What happens next is less obvious. Will holdout Repub‐ licans get past their aversion to him and rally to his side for the November election?
That question could well decide the U.S. presidential election.
The scramble for support‐ ers began Wednesday as some Republicans, like top senator Mitch McConnell, swiftly rallied to Trump's side. Meanwhile, Biden issued a gracious statement saluting
Haley and inviting her sup‐ porters to join him. Trump trash-talked Haley in his own statement.
For weeks, Haley voters have seen their dilemma coming; they've been grap‐ pling with it as it became ob‐ vious this moment was ap‐ proaching.
On Tuesday, when asked that question, Claudia Barbi‐ sh raised her eyes as she contemplated the unwel‐ come scenario of voting for Trump.
"Ah, that's a tough ques‐ tion," said Barbish, a Republi‐ can, outside a polling station Tuesday in Fairfax, Va., where she cast a ballot for Haley.
"Probably," she went on. "I think I would respect [Trump] as a leader. From a personal standpoint, favourite."
Trump needs others to follow her example. he's not my
In close election, Haley voters matter
Longtime party strategist Karl Rove pulled out a whiteboard on Fox News, late Tuesday, il‐ lustrating a potential impedi‐ ment to Trump's comeback.
He listed the conspicuous clusters still voting against Trump in Republican pri‐ maries: more than 20 per cent in numerous states, more than 30 per cent in a few, and half the voters in Vermont. Many of those pri‐ mary voters are not actual Republicans, but Democrats, who participated to vote against Trump in states that allow cross-party primary voting.
But actual longtime Re‐ publicans are wrestling with this decision.
Republicans grappling with what to do next
Decades-long friends de‐ bated that question on a sidewalk after a Haley rally, late last month in George‐ town, S.C.
Becky Ward Curtis said she's "sick" of Trump. In her 77 years, she said, she can't recall anyone bringing more vitriol into U.S. politics.
Will she vote for him, though?
"Most definitely," said the longtime Republican. "I would definitely vote for him [Trump]. I would never vote for Biden. I'm not an idiot." Her friend disagreed. Barbara Mathis, a semi-re‐ tired nurse, said she voted twice for Trump. There won't be a third time, she promised. She said she was irrevocably turned off by his behaviour in his post-presi‐ dency.
"I would write her [Haley] in," Mathis said. "Because his moral compass is wrong."
Trump predicts there will be enough voters like Barbi‐ sh and Ward Curtis. He ex‐ pressed confidence the party would come together, in a victory speech at his Florida mansion on Tuesday night. Haley did not speak publicly.
"We're going to have unity. And it's going to happen very quickly," Trump said.
WATCH | Haley exits race with a parting shot:
That is also consistent with most recent polls, which show Trump uniting his party and leading Biden.
Biden's defenders insist those surveys mean little: In byelections and in primaries, they say real election results show Republicans and Trump under-performing versus the surveys.
That pattern appeared to have snapped Tuesday as the former president hauled in big wins in most states, on a scale comparable to the sur‐ veys.
So are these general-elec‐ tion polls to be believed?
An analyst of public opin‐ ion data says it's fair to take a skeptical view of surveys within limits. He also sees real flashing signals for Biden.
"It's a little bit too far when some Biden surrogates say, 'Well, you know, polling is broken. We're not worried at all,'" said Marc Trussler, di‐ rector of the Program on Opinion Research and Elec‐ tion Studies at the University of Pennsylvania.
WATCH | Trump inches closer to Republican nomina‐ tion:
"I think there's certainly reasons to be concerned if you're Biden.'"
For example, he said, it's a bad sign for Biden that he still gets poor marks for han‐ dling the economy, even with the economy improving.
So the U.S. may be enjoy‐ ing the best economic growth, by far, among all countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), along with historically low unemployment and recordhigh stock prices.
Biden may have notched major legislative wins on drug prices, infrastructure and clean tech. Trump may be facing 91 criminal charges, running on authoritariansounding promises to punish his political enemies.
Yet Americans are angry. About lingering inflation. About a porous border. And about foreign wars, including the one in Gaza that has cre‐ ated a backlash within Biden's party.
That discontent is evident in an ongoing protest vote.
While Biden is easily cruis‐ ing to his own nomination, more than 10 per cent of voters in Democratic pri‐ maries have now opted for none-of-the-above in several states.
Now Americans will be asked to choose between two unusual candidates: an unpopular 78-year-old under indictment, and an unpopu‐ lar 81-year-old they see as frail.
The winner of this im‐ probable battle will be the candidate who most unites his party.
A Democratic strategist, Van Jones, speaking on CNN, delivered a clarion call to his allies, warning this won't be easy: "Get ready for the fight of your life."