Sask.'s El Niño winter is over. What does that mean for spring?

Winter 2023-24 was one for the record books.

Canada had its warmest December, January and Feb‐ ruary - often referred to as "meteorological winter" - since record keeping began in 1948.

While Saskatchewan did‐ n't rank first on record, al‐ most all locations were with‐ in the top 10 for warmest winters, with much of the province between 2 C and 6 C warmer than normal.

A likely reason for the un‐ usually spring-like winter weather was El Niño.

The recurring weather phenomenon makes Pacific Ocean waters near the equa‐ tor, just off the coast of South America, warmer than normal. The warm waters warm the air above and that surges into North America.

"It was a strong El Niño that formed this winter, as forecast," said Terri Lang, a meteorologist with Environ‐ ment and Climate Change Canada.

"We do have a correlation in Western Canada with strong El Niños in that we tend to get warmer than av‐ erage winters and drier than average winters."

This El Niño appears to have been stronger in Saskatchewan than the last one during the winter of 2015-16. That event made parts of Saskatchewan up to 4 C warmer than normal.

WATCH | How El Niño makes winter warmer and drier than usual:

John Gyakum, a professor in the Department of Atmos‐ pheric and Oceanic Sciences at McGill University, said cli‐ mate change is likely amplify‐ ing El Niño's effects.

"If you look at a map of ocean temperature anom‐ alies, it's absolutely seemingly off the charts in terms of just about every‐ where," said Gyakum.

A report from the World Meteorological Organization shows ocean surface temper‐ atures around the globe set a new January monthly record.

"This is worrying and can not be explained by El Niño alone," WMO secretary-gen‐ eral Celeste Saulo said in the report.

Gyakum suspects similar conditions could happen in Canada during future El Niños if ocean temperature anomalies are similar to or higher than what they were this winter.

"This larger background that is impacted by climate change really sets the scene for amplifying the signal of El Niño," he said.

El Niño is expected to weaken through spring and transition to a neutral phase, but the warm and dry condi‐ tions could linger even after its departure.

ECCC's three month out‐ look shows much of the country has a good chance of seeing above seasonal tem‐ peratures.

Farmers prepare for an‐ other drought year

Data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada shows much of Saskatchewan in moderate drought, with pockets of severe and ex‐ treme drought, as of the end of February.

The conditions have prompted the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan to ask the province to form a commit‐ tee to address drought.

APAS president Ian Boxall said he would like to see the committee involve govern‐ ment, farming groups and re‐ searchers, among others.

"I think we can sit down and have a dialogue about what does it look like?" said Boxall. "What are the options that the province has and producers have at their fin‐ gertips that would alleviate some of … these issues for producers moving forward?"

WATCH | Prairie ranchers sell livestock amid drought conditions:

Boxall said APAS could form the committee them‐ selves, even if government is‐ n't involved.

Alberta has a similar com‐ mittee, made up of "leaders with experience in agricul‐ ture, irrigation, Indigenous, industry, rural and urban is‐ sues," according to a release from the province.

Its goal is to "help the gov‐ ernment support communi‐ ties, farmers and ranchers, and businesses share, con‐ serve and manage water dur‐ ing a potential drought."

Boxall said heavy snowfall earlier this month could alle‐ viate concerns for some farmers, especially those who rely on runoff to fill dugouts for water use, but added rain this spring is what's needed most to grow crops.

Phillip Harder, a hydrolo‐ gist who farms near Saska‐ toon, thinks the snow on his farm melts down to between 40 and 50 centimetres of wa‐ ter - about a quarter of the moisture crops use to grow, he said.

But Harder believes much of this winter's melted snow will run off, instead of soak‐

ing into the ground, because of soil conditions.

"We had … early winter rain that sort of saturated the near surface, we've had midwinter melts," said Harder. "All those sequences have basically created a very thin but very frozen … surface."

A report from Saskatchewan's Water Secu‐ rity Agency (WSA) says much of the province is expected to see below or well below nor‐ mal runoff, but parts of east‐ ern and west-central Saskatchewan will see near normal runoff because of the heavy early March snowfall.

WSA spokesperson Patrick Boyle said dry weather in the fall caused the agency to re‐ duce the outflow of water from almost all reservoirs in the province over the winter.

"So you're retaining those inflows and then reducing the outflows so as to keep the reservoirs as high as pos‐ sible," said Boyle.

In its release, the WSA noted some south-central communities could face lo‐ calized water supply short‐ ages this spring due to dry conditions.

But Boyle said the WSA has worked with communi‐ ties over the past few mon‐ ths to mitigate shortages, and no communities are im‐ mediately at risk of running out of water.

Fires burned over winter in parts of Western Canada

Piyush Jain, a research sci‐ entist with the Canadian For‐ est Service, told CBC over 100 fires smouldered through the winter in parts of British Co‐ lumbia and Alberta. There were also fires reported in the Northwest Territories.

"It's pretty common to have a few, like a handful of overwintering fires," said Jain. "But to have well over 100 is very unusual."

Jain said much of the for‐ est in northern Saskatchewan is unmanaged, but there could have been fires smouldering there too.

WATCH | Wildfire smoke smoulders in B.C. in Febru‐ ary:

As of Mar. 23, four fires have already been reported in Saskatchewan in 2024. The five-year average for this time of year is zero.

"I think everyone's a little bit on edge waiting to see what that'll mean in the spring when the usual fireconducive weather condi‐ tions turn up," said Jain.

Jain said it's hard to predict what this fire season will be like, but there is con‐ cern given much of the Prairies are in drought.

There is currently little to no snow pack in northern Al‐ berta, and Natural Resource Canada's fire forecast sever‐ ity rating for May is already at a high to extreme level in much of Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well B.C.'s Southern Interior.