Canada pledges billions in new defence spending, but doesn't reach NATO's 2% commitment

Two years after being or‐ dered on an urgent basis, a new defence policy for Canada was unveiled Mon‐ day that promises - among other things - to bolster the military's surveillance and combat capabilities in the Arctic.

The strategy commits to delivering new equipment, including airborne early warning aircraft (AWACs), long-range surface-to-surface missiles for the army and utility helicopters that may or may not be manned.

The plan also lists new equipment the Department of National Defence is con‐ sidering acquiring, such as air defence systems to pro‐ tect critical infrastructure and new submarines.

The new policy, entitled Our North, Strong and Free, includes an additional $8.1 billion in new defence spend‐ ing over the next five years and commits to an additional $73 billion in defence spend‐ ing over the next two decades.

The additional investmen‐ ts will not bring Canada all the way to meeting NATO's military spending target for member nations - two per cent of national gross do‐ mestic product. The Liberal government estimates that the new policy will see mili‐ tary spending rise to 1.76 per cent of GDP by 2029-30.

"This is a significant in‐ crease in defence spending and is a major step forward in our effort to reach two per cent of GDP, as agreed by NATO members at the Vilnius Summit in 2023," the policy document says.

WATCH | New military spending falls short of NATO target:

How the document will be received by Canada's allies many of whom have been putting pressure on Ottawa to meet its commitments in response to Russia's war on Ukraine - remains to be seen.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defended the docu‐ ment during its unveiling at the country's largest military air base in Trenton, Ont. on Monday. He said some ele‐ ments of the plan have not yet been costed - items that could affect the bottom line down the road.

"So even as we project we're heading up to 1.76 per cent of GDP in the coming years, we know there is more to come over the coming years, as Canada continues to step up in a more uncer‐ tain and, quite frankly, more dangerous world," Trudeau said.

U.S. Ambassador to Cana‐ da David Cohen said in a media statement that the Biden Administration is pleased with the direction of Canada's investments in de‐ fence.

"Moving from 1.33 per cent to 1.76 per cent by 2029-2030 is real progress, and we are also encouraged by the assurances we have received that there will be ad‐ ditional investments," Cohen said.

Behind the scenes, the al‐ lies have played good copbad cop with Canada. While United States takes a concil‐ iatory position, major Euro‐ pean partners, including the

U.K., have been more blunt in expressing their desire to see Canada meet its commit‐ ments.

Dave Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said NATO has been clear that two per cent of GDP is the floor for military spending, not the ceiling, and allies expect each nation to have a plan to meet the goal.

"There is actually no artic‐ ulated plan [in the policy] to get to to two per cent, which I think our allies are going to be quite attuned to, and it will not go unnoticed," said Perry.

The federal Conservatives took issue with the fact that much of the spending won't take place in the near-term.

"Trudeau is once again kicking the can down the road by committing most of the defence spending in to‐ day's announcement until af‐ ter the next election," said the party's defence critic James Bezan.

"Instead of 'exploring op‐ tions,' the brave women and men in the Canadian Armed Forces need new kit, better training and investments in their futures today, not 20 years from now."

Major allies, notably the United States and Britain, have been pushing Canada to take a more active position in defending the Arctic, where Russia has been build‐ ing up and restoring many Cold War capabilities and bases.

"The most urgent and im‐ portant task we face is as‐ serting Canada's sovereignty in the Arctic and northern re‐ gions, where the changing physical and geopolitical landscapes have created new threats and vulnerabilities to Canada and Canadians," says the policy document.

The strategy says the new threats in the region include "advanced submarines [and] hypersonic and cruise mis‐ siles." To meet those threats, the defence policy says the federal government will es‐ tablish a network of northern operational support hubs, buy a fleet of airborne early warning aircraft, deploy un‐ derwater sensors on all three coasts, build a satellite ground station in the High Arctic and enhance Canada's foreign intelligence capabili‐ ties.

The focus on both the Arc‐ tic and climate change will resonate with the Canadian public and make the defence policy easier to sell across the political spectrum, said Steve Saideman of Carleton University, one of the coun‐ try's leading experts on NATO,

"I think that they are em‐ phasizing the Arctic because they understand that is what Canadians want their de‐ fence money to go toward," Saideman said. "I think the focus on climate security, which was very, very clear in the document was really well targeted."

He said he doubts the Arc‐ tic poses a major security threat when compared with the rise of autocracies, but the federal government's ap‐ proach "makes sense from the standpoint of trying to get money from Parliament, from the political system. This is what people want to hear. So they're telling what they want to hear."

The government has said it plans to study the possibil‐ ity of acquiring new sub‐ marines to replace the threedecades-old Victoria class boats. Submarines would be a key tool for defending the Arctic and the navy has al‐

ready laid out options for ac‐ quiring up to 12 convention‐ ally-powered submarines.

During the media avail‐ ability, however, Trudeau made the purchase of new submarines sound more like a question of when, not if.

"We talk about exploring and defining this submarine capability we're going to need to patrol and protect our Arctic in the coming decades," Trudeau said. "That is [an] investment that Canada is going to be making in our Canadian Armed Forces, but we haven't yet defined exactly what types of submarines and how they're going to be deployed."

In keeping with the feder‐ al government's plan to pur‐ chase F-35 fighters, the de‐ fence policy indicates the mil‐ itary is prepared to use force to defence the continent.

"We will also develop greater striking power to de‐ ter adversaries and keep threats farther from our shores," says the policy docu‐ ment. "We will acquire longrange missile capabilities for the Army. These missiles will be deployed to enable our forces to shoot at greater ranges than our adversaries in combat.

"We also commit to pro‐ viding the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force with the striking power they need to deter threats at an appropriate distance, and will explore options to ac‐ quire long-range air- and sealaunched missiles."

Climate change also is adding a sense of urgency to the federal government's focus on the Arctic.

"Our Arctic is now warming at four times the global average, making a vast and sensitive region more ac‐ cessible to foreign actors who have growing capabili‐ ties and regional military am‐ bitions," says the policy docu‐ ment.

The strategy identifies both China and Russia as po‐ tential threats and says

Moscow's war on Ukraine must not be allowed to suc‐ ceed. The document says that Russia's northern mili‐ tary build-up creates uncer‐ tainty for NATO that must be addressed.

"The new geography of the Russian threat under‐ mines our capacity to assist allies in Europe from a posi‐ tion of strength," says the policy document. "Our de‐ fence of the Arctic will be more essential than ever."

WATCH: Canadian Forces relaxing recruitment rules

Some of the defence poli‐ cy's language on China mir‐ rors what the federal govern‐ ment wrote in its Indo-Pacific Strategy. Beijing, it says, is an increasingly "assertive global actor looking to reshape the international system to ad‐ vance its interests and val‐ ues, which increasingly di‐ verge from our own on mat‐ ters of defence and security."

But the policy also pledges to manage the de‐ fence relationship with China "purposefully" when it comes to hot button issues such as freedom of navigation and the future of Taiwan.

"Frank, open, and respect‐ ful dialogue is important and helps to ensure clarity about Canada's national positions. Instability in the Taiwan Strait, a vital waterway, would disrupt Canadian trade, in‐ cluding in critical advanced technologies, and could cost trillions of dollars to the global economy," says the policy document.

The Canadian military is facing a crisis in recruitment; both the regular and reserve force are short up to 15,780 members. The military also faces many important social shortfalls in things like access to affordable housing and day care.

The new strategy promises to speed up recruit‐ ing by offering a probation‐ ary period for those wanting to join. Defence Minister Bill Blair has been pushing the department to adopt such a model in order to get more people into uniform more quickly.

Among the other items in the new policy documents is a promise to fix the defence procurement system and to consult more with industry about the military's needs something the federal gov‐ ernment has promised be‐ fore.

"This policy will only be ef‐ fective with real procurement reform, something that has proven elusive," said Christyn Cianfarani, president of the Canadian Association of De‐ fence and Security Industries (CADSI).

"The solution cannot only be increased reliance on for‐ eign-made military equip‐ ment and services. NATO's targets, and its Defence Pro‐ duction Action Plan, are based on the idea that each member nation is responsi‐ ble for building and sustain‐ ing a defence industrial base that can contribute to greater allied capacity and deter‐ rence."