Milton byelection matters for Doug Ford and Bonnie Crombie

For Premier Doug Ford, there's more at stake in Thursday's provincial by‐ election in Milton than just one seat at Queen's Park.

While a byelection win or loss won't change the status of any party in the majorityPC Legislature, the results in Milton will tell Ford, his oppo‐ nents and all their political organizers plenty about the challenges they'll face in the run-up to the next provincial election campaign two years from now.

"Normally I would say that you can't read too much into byelections," said Andrew

Perez, a Liberal strategist, in an interview. "In this case, I think this byelection in Milton is critical."

Andrew Brander, a Con‐ servative strategist, says the vote comes at a critical time for the Ford government.

"The reason why I think [the byelection] matters is Milton is an exceptional mi‐ crocosm of the GTA," said Brander, who managed three successful federal campaigns in the riding for former Con‐ servative MP Lisa Raitt.

Here are five reasons why you should pay attention to what happens in Milton, even if you don't live there.

1. It's the 905

The path to power in On‐ tario leads through the 905, made up of the regions of Halton, Peel, York and Durham. For the last eight straight provincial elections, the party that won the most seats in this part of the

Greater Toronto Area formed government.

The PC dominance of the 905 was one of the most no‐ table features of the 2022 election. Ford's party cap‐ tured 28 of its 29 ridings, with the NDP's win in Os‐ hawa as the only exception.

Both politically and math‐ ematically, it will be almost impossible for any party to defeat the PCs in the next election (scheduled for June 2026) without prying away a healthy chunk of these seats.

The results today in Mil‐ ton could be seen as a sam‐ ple of how 905 voters are

feeling midway through Ford's second term as pre‐ mier.

Polling suggests the Liber‐ als are competitive in Milton and Perez says voter senti‐ ment in neighbouring ridings is likely similar. "I think that's promising for our party," he said.

For the Official Opposition New Democrats, who have long struggled to win any‐ where in the 905 outside of Brampton and Oshawa, the results will send a message to Marit Stiles's party about how much further it needs to go to have a realistic shot at forming government.

2. It's a challenge for Doug Ford

The byelection was forced by Ford's former minister of red tape reduction, Parm Gill, jumping ship to become the candidate for Pierre Poilievre's federal Conserva‐ tive Party.

Milton has clearly been on Ford's mind of late. He held a news conference in the riding in mid-April to announce ex‐ panded GO Transit service. He held a news conference on Tuesday to re-announce a 2025 start date for construc‐ tion of Highway 413, which would link Milton to Vaugh‐ an.

Ford also opposed the Speaker's ban on the Pales‐ tinian keffiyeh scarf in the Legislature, which some po‐ litical commentators con‐ nected to the number of Muslim voters in the riding.

"All of these things speak to the lengths that the pre‐ mier is willing to go to cater to the voters of Milton," said Brander.

If Ford's party fails to hold on to the seat, Brander says that could make PC MPPs from other ridings in the re‐ gion worry about their politi‐ cal futures, and reconsider whether they want to seek re-election in 2026.

3. It's a test for Bonnie Crombie

Thursday's byelection in Milton (along with the simul‐ taneous bylection in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, a riding that the PCs have held for four straight elections) is the first ballot box test for Bonnie Crombie since she became leader of the Ontario Liberal Party in December.

As the former mayor of Mississauga, Crombie's pres‐ ence as leader should in the‐ ory boost the Liberals' for‐ tunes elsewhere in the 905.

The Liberals came close in Milton in 2022, losing by just four percentage points, de‐ spite the party's dismal showing provincewide under leader Steven Del Duca.

So if the party can't win this byelection under Crom‐ bie, said Brander, "I think that's that's a bit of a warning sign for the Liberals."

The PCs have ramped up their attack ads targeting Crombie since the byelection campaign began, including TV spots airing during Toron‐ to Maple Leafs playoff games.

Given the extent of the PC advertising salvo, Perez says even a closely-fought loss will indicate that Crombie has given momentum to the Lib‐ erals as their new leader.

4. Its issues resonate Issues that matter a lot to voters in the suburban, com‐ muter-heavy riding of Milton - such as housing, the cost of living, transportation - tend to be issues that voters care about in many ridings around the GTA.

"These are all issues that the premier and the PC cau‐ cus have been speaking to very clearly," said Brander. "If they can't hold on to a riding like Milton where those is‐ sues are supposed to res‐ onate so well, then that has to be somewhat concerning for the premier."

The hyper-local issue that has generated the most de‐ bate during the byelection is a proposed quarry near Campbellville, in the north‐ west corner of Milton. There's always the possibility for such a controversy to mo‐ tivate just enough voters to swing the result in a close race.

Milton has been a swing riding in the last three elec‐ tions, with the PCs winning it in 2018 and 2022, while the Liberals took its predecessor riding of Halton when Kath‐ leen Wynne led the party to victory in 2014.

5. It could reveal a trend The PCs haven't won any of the four Ontario byelec‐ tions held since the party romped to its second ma‐ jority in 2022.

Admittedly, three of those seats were previously held by other parties. But last July's loss of Kanata-Carleton, a seat vacated by former cab‐ inet minister Merrilee Fuller‐ ton - coupled that same day with the failure of former Toronto city councillor Gary Crawford to take Scarbor‐ ough-Guildwood from the Liberals - stung Ford's party.

The loss of another former cabinet minister's seat in Milton could start to look like a disappointing trend for the Tories.

Both Brander and Perez predict Thursday's race will be close, and say each party's ability to get voters to the polls could make a differ‐ ence, given the low turnout that byelections typically muster.

The candidates in Milton for the four parties with seats in the legislature are:

Zee Hamid (PC) Kyle Hut‐ ton (Green) Galen Naidoo Harris (Liberal) Edie Strachan (NDP)

Polling stations are open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m.