Federal panel lists 35 'plausible' future threats to Canada and the world

In a new report, a thinktank within Employment and Social Development Canada cites 35 "plausible" global disruptions that could reshape Canada and the world in the near fu‐ ture.

The Policy Horizons Cana‐ da (PHC) panel drafted the list and then asked more than 500 stakeholders within and outside government to suggest which ones were more likely, when they might happen and how one might trigger others.

The authors of the report point out that the list is an exploration of theoretical not guaranteed - threats. They say that even "seemingly distant or im‐ probable" calamities can be‐ come reality and thinking about them helps govern‐ ments create "robust and re‐ silient policies."

Leading the report's top ten list - those threats that could have the greatest im‐ pacts and are most likely to happen - is the threat to truth.

PHC's report says that in as little as three years, the world's "information ecosys‐ tem" could be flooded with misinformation and disinfor‐ mation created by both peo‐ ple and artificial intelligence (AI).

It warns that algorithms designed to engage audi‐ ences emotionally rather than factually could "increase distrust and social fragmen‐ tation," isolating people in "separate realities shaped by their personal media …"

"Public decision making could be compromised as in‐ stitutions struggle to effec‐ tively communicate key mes‐ saging on education, public health, research and govern‐ ment information," the re‐ port says.

The second and third threats on the top ten list are environmental: ecosystem collapse due to loss of biodi‐ versity and extreme weather events overwhelming our ability to respond.

In five to six years, the re‐ port says, a collapse in biodi‐ versity "could have cascading impacts on all living things, putting basic human needs such as clean air, water and food in jeopardy."

It says that impacts on key industries like farming, fish‐ ing and logging could lead to "major economic loss," leav‐ ing people unable to "meet their basic needs."

The report warns the in‐ creasing frequency of wild‐ fires, floods and severe stor‐ ms could destroy property and infrastructure, displacing millions of people and wors‐ ening the mental health crisis.

AI could run wild

In as little as four to five years, cyber attacks could disable critical infrastructure and billionaires could use their influence to run the world, the PHC warns.

The report says that cyber attacks on critical infrastruc‐ ture could leave governmen‐ ts struggling to deliver ser‐ vices and compromise access to essential goods.

And in five years, the re‐ port says, the super-rich could use their influence to shape public policy and im‐ pose their values and beliefs on the world, "bypassing de‐ mocratic governance princi‐ ples."

"As their power grows, bil‐ lionaires could gain warfare capabilities and control over natural resources and strate‐ gic assets," the report says. "Some might co-opt national foreign policy or take unilat‐ eral diplomatic or military ac‐ tion, destabilizing interna‐ tional relations."

Jeremie Harris, head of Gladstone AI, a U.S.-based advisory firm which studies the consequences of artificial intelligence development, said the heightened risks to cybersecurity are worth high‐ lighting, given the rapid de‐ velopment of AI technology.

"We're always very careful every time we talk about AI: It's the promise and the peril, they come hand and hand," he said in an interview.

Harris noted that as AI models get more advanced, they could potentially exe‐ cute more complex cyberat‐ tacks, more cheaply than be‐ fore. The potential risks of technology like AI can be hard to wrap one's mind around, he added.

He said there have been some efforts to control the pace and nature of AI tech‐ nological development - such as an executive order from the U.S. president.

Harris said that when dis‐ cussing AI, it's important to balance the potential posi‐ tives with the risks.

"We have to walk and chew gum at the same time."

The PHC report suggests that in six years, AI could run wild. "This rapid develop‐ ment and spread of AI could outpace regulatory efforts to prevent its misuse, leading to many unforeseen chal‐ lenges," the report says.

AI-generated content could end up manipulating and dividing national popula‐ tions, driving values-based clashes, the report warns. In a worst-case scenario, it ad‐ ds, AI could compromise criti‐ cal infrastructure, putting pressure on vital resources and accelerating climate change.

Ranked seventh on the re‐ port's list of top-ten threats is the prospect of widespread shortages of vital resources like water, sand and critical minerals. In as little as eight years time, the report says, this scarcity could lead to "cascading impacts on hu‐ man health and social stabil‐ ity."

"Prices of resources could become volatile and economies unstable, as onceabundant vital resources be‐ come scarce," the report says.

The competition for what remains, it adds, could cause instability and "devolve into armed conflict, driving na‐ tions into war over re‐ sources."

Coming in at eighth on the list is what the report de‐ scribes as the normalization of downward social mobility.

"With housing becoming increasingly unaffordable and work arrangements more precarious, socioe‐ conomic conditions for Cana‐ dians could decline from one generation to the next," the report says.

The threat to democra‐ cies

In as little as five years time, the report warns, people could "lose hope in improv‐ ing their lives," creating economic and social stress "as the extremely wealthy continue to accumulate a larger share of the wealth."

Coming in at ninth place is the possibility that Canada's aging population, labour shortages, increasing rates of disease and funding restric‐ tions could lead to a collapse of the health care system within six years, PHC says.

"If Canadians cannot count on reliable access to effective health care, there may be increased mortality rates, distrust in fundamen‐ tal government services, damage to Canada's global reputation, impacts to immi‐ gration and social upheaval," the report says.

David Jones, a policy ex‐ pert with the Canadian Cen‐ tre for Health Economics, said it's useful to look at po‐ tential threats to the healthcare system, but he doesn't believe that a system col‐ lapse would come in a sud‐ den, dramatic fashion - bar‐ ring another pandemic-like event.

He said that rather than a "flip" into a total collapse, a better way to think about the issue was to consider that parts of the health-care sys‐ tem were already in crisis, such as rural emergency rooms, and to imagine an "in‐ creasing, gradual building of pressure."

Jones flagged a number of persistent and difficult-tosolve problems that are plaguing the system which could intensify over the com‐ ing years, including long wait‐ lists, limited access and the broader pressures of an ag‐ ing population in Canada.

Jones said a number of in‐ cremental changes across the system were resulting in improvements, from data sharing, digitization of health records, the proliferation of health-care teams and pre‐ liminary use of some artificial intelligence to reduce admin‐ istrative burdens.

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Last on the list is the prospect of a breakdown in democratic systems. The re‐ port notes that authoritarian governments around the world outnumber democra‐ cies and "the struggle be‐ tween the two ideologies is messy in many countries."

"Democracy is showing signs of decline around the world. Even countries with a long history of democratic values and systems are fac‐ ing challenges to their de‐ mocratic institutions," the re‐ port says.

"As society fragments into distinct groups, each with its own perception of the world, it could become impossible to build national consensus and design policies, pro‐ grams and messages that serve the population."

The report's conclusion says that being aware of fu‐ ture threats can help govern‐ ments prepare and mitigate risks.

"While the disruptions in this report are not guaran‐ teed to take place, they are plausible - and overlooking them may carry risks in vari‐ ous policy areas," the report warns.

You can here. read the report