Bolland a worthy trade target for Oilers
There’s little debate among the sportswriters that Pavel Datsyuk of the Detroit Red Wings is the NHL’s best defensive forward. Datsyuk is again nominated for the Selke Trophy. It’s his fifth straight nomination. He’s already won it three times.
Datsyuk is the gold standard, which makes him a good point of comparison for other defensive centres, such as the Edmonton Oilers’ own Shawn Horcoff and Chicago Blackhawks’ Dave Bolland.
ESPN writer Jesse Rogers has written Bolland is “redundant” in Chicago, making him a potential target for the Oilers on the trade market, hence my interest in evaluating him.
Bolland isn’t a huge player. He’s a bit smaller than Horcoff, in fact, but he’s gritty, he’s just 26 years old, and he has two years left on a deal that pays him $3.3 million per year.
Derek Zona of the Copper and Blue blog recently put in a good word for him, declaring Bolland to be the rightful winner of the Selke Trophy this season, even though he’s not one of the finalists (they are Datsyuk, David Backes of the St. Louis Blues and Patrice Bergeron of the Boston Bruins).
In making this claim about Bolland’s merit, Zona focuses on the high percentage of defensive-zone faceoffs that Bolland took and on the fierce competition that Bolland faced.
If a centre is trusted on defence, it’s likely that his coach will put him out for key defensive faceoffs against tough opposing scorers, such as Evgeni Malkin and the Sedin brothers. That was Bolland’s lot.
Of the 108 NHL centres who played 70 or more games, Bolland ranked sixth for having the highest rate of defensive zone faceoffs, 67 per cent of all his non-neutral zone draws.
Horcoff ranked 29th out of 108, with 56 per cent, and Datsyuk 89th, with just 44 per cent in the defensive zone.
Of course, Detroit is such a strong team, it earns a higher percentage of offensive-zone faceoffs than other teams, so that pushed down Datsyuk’s ranking. There’s also a huge incentive to put out the offensively gifted Datsyuk for offensive zone faceoffs. So it’s imprudent to hold Datsyuk’s high rate of offensive-zone faceoffs against him when rating his defence.
When it comes to quality of competition, Bolland edged out Datsyuk, as measured through plus/minus numbers at the Behind the Net blog.
Bolland faced the fourth toughest competitors of any regular centre. Datsyuk was close behind, 13th overall, with Horcoff also close, 16th out of 108. They all faced tough opposing players.
Coaches also trust their top centres with penalty kill time. Horcoff was out for 2:39 minutes per game, seventh for regular centres, Bolland 1:46 minutes, 33rd for regulars, and Datsyuk just 1:13, 54th overall.
The most obvious strike against both Bolland and Horcoff is that when they were on the ice, the opposition scored far more than when Datsyuk was out. Horcoff was on for 82 even-strength and 23 powerplay goals against, Bolland for 62 and 13, but Datsyuk for just 43 and eight. Little wonder Selke voters think so highly of the Russian ace.
To be fair, it’s crucial to note that many of the goals against for both Bolland and Horcoff came as a result of bad goaltending and defensive mistakes by teammates, not their own mistakes.
In five-on-five play, when Datsyuk was on the ice, Detroit goalies had a decent .922 save percentage, but for Horcoff with the Oilers, it was a weak .909, and for Bolland in Chicago, an atrocious .898.
Chicago goalies and Bolland’s teammates blew it a lot, with Bolland’s defensive stats taking a hit. Same goes for Horcoff on the Oilers.
When it came to them actually making mistakes on goals against, according to my review of goals against at Nhl.com, Horcoff made 20 mistakes that directly contributed to goals against at even strength, 0.26 per 15 minutes of play. Bolland also made 20 such mistakes, 0.31 per 15, with Datsyuk making just 14, 0.20 per 15.
On the penalty kill, Bolland was the soundest, with just three mistakes leading to goals against, 0.34/15. Horcoff made 10, 0.70 per 15. Datsyuk made four, 0.71 per 15. Big lead for Bolland there.
Overall, and taking into consideration Chicago’s weak goal-tending, Bolland’s tough assignments and his strong work on the kill, it’s evident Bolland is a trusted and effective defensive centre. He’s likely not so adept as Datsyuk at even strength, but as good as Horcoff and better on the kill. He’s a worthy trade target.